Weekly Watchlist Dec 29

New Year New Beginnings

Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.

🎯 Initial Thoughts + TLDR

I hope everyone had a great Christmas break and a great holiday break. This upcoming week is the turn of the new year, which is weird because it’s in the middle of the week. Last year, Jan 1st landed on a Monday which made it almost perfect with timing. As mentioned in last week’s post, we slowly drifted upwards on lower volume this holiday week. We saw SPY 0.00%↑ hit new ATHs while QQQ 0.00%↑ and tech are still lagging behind a bit.

SLV 0.00%↑ hits new ATHs and metals continue to outperform. A large factor can be attributed to China requiring government licenses for silver exports starting January  1, 2026. China is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of silver, which is heavily used in EVs, solar and semiconductors. Not only that, there is a shortage of silver which is causing an imbalance of demand. China’s play to lower the supply not only drives up silver’s price but also in a way is a play for global power.

It’s a constant moving factor to keep an eye on, as metals used to inverse the market. But now, they kind of move in tandem if not out perform. I think this will become an issue going into Q1 and Q2 of 2026, there’s still more upside potential.

📅 Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 30: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Wednesday, December 31: Unemployment Claims

Friday, January 01: Final Manufacturing PMI

📈 Market Update: As of Friday, Dec 26

SPY 0.00%↑: We drifted into new ATHs only relatively lower volume. This push up was largely driven by financials and industrials, with NVDA 0.00%↑ sprinkled in there too. The concerning part is what will happen when volume returns into the market. We could see something similar to Thanksgiving week where we drifted up and then pulled back when money flowed back in.

Bitcoin: I think we are likely to see a move in the next coming months from this range. A daily close above 94k or under 84k is the key to watch for. This break of range will happen with high volume to confirm the directional bias. Until then, we will chop and range especially with money focused on metals. I think any huge drops in Bitcoin should be a buying opportunity. There’s too much institutional participation for this asset class to stay tanked for a long time.

🔍 What I’m Watching

SHOP 0.00%↑: With an inside week and holding above the breakout spot of ~$169, this rate sensitive stock is looking potentially ready for a breakout. Over 174 is the key zone to break past and hold over. Past this level, we can start testing 180+ and test ATHs.

There is also a massive weekly base that is getting primed to break.

META 0.00%↑: Really nice flipping and some buying present in MAG7 stocks. This is a laggard that can really catch some momentum soon. We’ve reclaimed and are currently retesting the 50EMA. Over 680 is the safe spot for entry to play the gap fill. I’d look to target 700 as first TP and then full gap fill from there.

ROKU 0.00%↑: A massive weekly stage 1 breakout in the works, which makes me think price is not done. A break over 113.56 is pivotal for a continuation move but a retest of the base would be welcome too. This is a great recovery story for a covid name that has been beaten down.

📝Closing Thoughts

We probably get another low volume week given the shortness, but we still have some important economic data. The price action for our first full week of the new year will be telling for our direction. The metals price action is also a factor to continue paying attention to.