Weekly Watchlist Dec 22: Merry Christmas!
Welcome back to another Weekly Trade Plan with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop briefing to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
šÆ Initial Thoughts + TLDR
For those worried about a Santa rally, donāt lose hope yet! Past data indicates that usually the Santa rally occurs mid to late December. This may go hand in hand with lower volume given large funds are all on vacation, but we could see a slow volume climb up that we saw during Thanksgiving week.
Meanwhile, across the seas, the BOJ hiked rates by 0.25% to 0.75%. This makes Japanās interest rates at its highest level in 30 years. This is a huge shift given that Japanās rates have stayed at flat zero or even negative for a long time. In my opinion, this is auspicious news for Japan because that implies a healthier economic sentiment. This could be the starting points of Japan escaping deflation. Of course, this is still a very delicate situation given the zombie companies that exist and the countryās aging population.
But at face value, raising rates means the current administration has confidence that current companies can pass on costs and there is enough economic stimulus. This also means wages can potentially rise without hurting demand.
š Key Earnings & Economic Calendar
Tuesday, December 23: Prelim GDP, Durable Goods
Wednesday, December 24: Unemployment Claims
Thursday, December 25: Christmas!!
š Market Update: As of Friday, Dec 12
SPY 0.00%ā: We continue to chop and while the weekly candle shows high sell volume, price managed to close above the weekly 9EMA. To me, this shows an intact up trend still but we will likely chop a bit more.
Trend collapses on the weekly timeframe can happen quick but insofar as the weekly 9EMA continues to hold, there is no reason to flip super bearish.
Bitcoin: Crypto continues to hold the recent low at around 84.6k and seems to be attempting a triple bottom. A confirmation of this break of downtrend is a strong flip and push past 94k.
I donāt think we will see crazy huge drops unless a black swan event given the large institutional participation in cryptocurrency now. Of course, this also means the potential crazy upward movements are probably capped now too.
š What Iām Watching
ONDS 0.00%ā : This name has a fantastic weekly hammer on high volume compressing into local resistance at around 9.34. I would love to see a healthy daily break past this resistance zone as confirmation and as an entry. From there, we can target the 11.74 pivot high and then to 12+
Trade Plan: Taking 3/26 12C over 9.34 targeting 11.75+
Tesla has now had three inside days and still curling towards the upside. I donāt think this move is quite down and over 500 seems imminent before year end. This previous week ended up being the highest weekly close ever on exceptionally high volume. I think seeing this type of close does not lead to an immediate rejection.
Trade Plan: Taking 1/16 550C over 492 targeting 500+
GS 0.00%ā: Financials have remained strong and continue to lead like C 0.00%ā. I expect Goldman to continue to be a leader and test new highs.
Trade Plan: Taking 1/16 950C over 896.24 targeting 910+
ASTS 0.00%ā: The aerospace theme is very much the highlight of momentum especially with the strong rebound in price this past Friday on ASTS 0.00%ā and RKLB 0.00%ā. With a hammer close that tested the weekly 9 and 21 EMA, I could see a quick flip in sentiment and a fast breakout to test 100+
Trade Plan: Taking either 1/16 85C or 2/20 100C over 77.9 targeting 90+
šClosing Thoughts
With a low volume week coming up, I think we could see similar price action like Thanksgiving week. We grinded up on low volume but price respected levels. Realistically, the price action likely slows down drastically come Tuesday afternoon. The market is starting to shape up pretty well, and is potentially setting up for a great Q1 of 2026. There are still a lot of factors but this consolidation is healthy.