This Week in Markets - March 9: Oil, War, and Inflation Week
The Middle East conflict enters week two, oil threatens $100, and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge drops Friday. Buckle up.
Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
Last week’s price action was not positive, and this week could be even worse.
The U.S.-Iran conflict is now entering its second week with no ceasefire in sight. Oil ripped 35% in five days. The jobs report was a disaster. And just when you thought the market might catch a bid, President Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social and crude hit $92.
This week, we get CPI on Wednesday and PCE on Friday. Two inflation prints in one week, with oil screaming higher. The market is looking for a reason to bounce. The question is whether the data gives it one, or whether inflation fears make everything worse.
Let's get into it.
📊 Last Week Recap
It was a week the market would like to forget.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,740, down 2% on the week. The Dow dropped 3%, its worst week since last April. The Nasdaq fell 1.2%. All three major indexes are now in negative territory for 2026.
The February jobs report came in significantly worse than expected. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs when economists expected a gain of 50,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. This is the kind of print that gets people talking about recession, and the timing could not be worse with oil prices compounding the pain.
Speaking of oil, WTI crude futures surged as high as $92.61 on Friday, their highest level since September 2023. The 35% weekly gain was the largest since crude futures started trading in 1983. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tanker traffic halted after Iran targeted regional energy infrastructure. Maersk suspended multiple shipping services linking the region to Europe and Asia. Kuwait cut oil production. Goldman Sachs warned oil could breach $100 within days.
The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.15%, up from 3.95% the prior week. Gold hit $5,165 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.97. Bitcoin, which plunged to $63,000 after the initial Iran strikes, recovered to around $68,100.
The one bright spot: MRVL 0.00%↑ surged 18% after strong earnings driven by AI demand. BA 0.00%↑ popped nearly 4% on reports of a 500-aircraft order from China, expected to be unveiled when President Trump visits Beijing March 31-April 2. On the other side, GAP 0.00%↑ dropped 14% post-earnings.
All seven Magnificent Seven names closed lower on Friday. Defensive positioning dominated the week, with massive put buying creating what one strategist called "a rubber band ready to snap if we get some light at the end of the tunnel."
📅 This Week's Economic Calendar
Tuesday, March 10
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (February)
Wednesday, March 11
8:30 AM ET: CPI (February): the big one. Last month, headline CPI rose modestly while core inflation remained firm, with shelter costs still the primary driver. Markets are laser focused on whether the oil spike is bleeding into consumer prices yet. A hot print here could send yields higher and kill any bounce attempt.
10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, obviously critical context given the Hormuz crisis.
Thursday, March 12
Housing Starts (January), Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, March 13
8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (January): the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Oxford Economics says the delayed January BEA report is unlikely to shift Fed policy, but with oil ripping, any upside surprise would be amplified.
GDP Second Estimate (Q4 2025), Personal Income & Spending (January), Durable Goods Orders (January, preliminary), JOLTS Job Openings (January), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March, preliminary)
This is a monster data week. CPI Wednesday and PCE Friday bookend the week with the two most important inflation reads. Add in the JOLTS print and another jobs claims number, and we'll have a very clear picture of where the economy stands by Friday close.
Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
🔥 Oracle ($ORCL): Tuesday After Close
This is the earnings event of the week. ORCL 0.00%↑ reports Q3 FY2026 results Tuesday after the bell.
The setup: Oracle has been one of the more interesting AI infrastructure plays. The stock is down about 20% year-to-date as investors question the heavy capex spend on cloud and AI buildout. But the numbers keep growing! Consensus expects:
EPS: $1.70-$1.71 (15.6% YoY growth)
Revenue: ~$16.9 billion (16-18% growth in constant currency, 19-21% in dollar terms)
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Estimated at $541 billion, up 315% from a year ago
That RPO number is staggering. Oracle's cloud and AI infrastructure buildout, including its role in the Stargate AI project, has created a massive contracted backlog. The question is whether the market cares about future revenue when present-day macro is this uncertain.
Bull scenario: Revenue beats the high end of guidance (21%+ in dollar terms), cloud infrastructure revenue accelerates, and management raises full-year outlook. RPO comes in above $541B. The stock bounces hard off oversold levels, and sympathy flows into $CRM, $NOW, $SNOW, and the broader cloud/AI trade.
Neutral scenario: Numbers come in roughly inline. Revenue at 18-19% growth, EPS at $1.70. RPO is strong but the market shrugs because geopolitics dominate sentiment. Stock moves 2-3% either way.
Bear scenario: Revenue disappoints on the low end of guidance or below. Enterprise spending shows signs of pulling back due to macro uncertainty. Management flags deal slippage or client caution tied to the war. Stock gaps down, and the entire cloud/AI complex takes a hit. $AMZN (AWS), $MSFT (Azure), and $GOOGL (GCP) all feel it.
What to watch: The conference call commentary on enterprise AI demand. Are customers still signing big cloud contracts, or is the geopolitical uncertainty causing hesitation? That's the real signal.
💰 Other Earnings to Watch
ADBE 0.00%↑, DG 0.00%↑, ULTA 0.00%↑, and LEN 0.00%↑
