This Week in Markets - March 17: The Fed, the War, and Micron
Oil is in the driver's seat. But this week, the Fed gets the mic back.
Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
This is a big one. We have an FOMC meeting with a fresh dot plot, a Powell press conference (his second to last as Chair), and earnings from Micron, the most important AI hardware name not named NVIDIA. All of this is happening against the backdrop of a market that just logged new 2026 lows and a geopolitical crisis that has oil prices calling the shots.
Last week was again another rough one. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the Nasdaq slipped under its 200-day, and oil surged over 5% as Iran doubled down on closing the Strait of Hormuz. The market is being held hostage by energy prices right now, and this week will test whether the Fed can offer any relief.
Let’s get into it.
📊 Last Week Recap
Another rough week for equities. The major indexes finished lower across the board:
$SPY / S&P 500: -1.6% (closed ~$662, new 2026 low)
$QQQ / Nasdaq: -1.3% (fell below the 200-day moving average)
Dow: -2.0%
Russell 2000: -1.8%
Here’s the thing. None of this was driven by traditional fundamentals. CPI came in exactly in line at 2.4% headline and 2.5% core. PCE matched forecasts too, though it stayed stubbornly high at 2.8%. Q4 GDP was revised lower to just 0.7%. In any normal market, that in line inflation data would have been a relief. But this is not a normal market.
Oil is running the show. The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade sent crude up about 5.5% for the week, with Brent hovering around $80-82 per barrel. The IRGC literally said they won’t allow “a litre of oil” through the strait. That kind of headline moves markets fast.
Treasury yields climbed hard on the inflationary implications: the 2-year jumped 17 basis points to 3.73%, and the 10-year rose 16 bps to 4.29%. Higher yields plus higher oil equals pain for most of the market.’
In the software sector: -4.0%+In earnings, Oracle crushed it: cloud revenue up 44%, both organic revenue and non-GAAP EPS growing 20%+ for the first time in 15 years. $ORCL jumped 10%. But Adobe sank 8% despite record earnings after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he’s stepping down, adding uncertainty around the company’s AI strategy.
The market is telling us something: good earnings can’t save you when macro headwinds are this strong.
