This Week in Markets - March 1: Oil, Broadcom, and the Jobs Report
The U.S. just struck Iran. Broadcom reports Wednesday. And Friday's jobs data could decide the next leg.
Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
This might be the most important week we've had all year. The U.S. confirmed "major combat operations" in Iran on Friday night, striking targets in Tehran.
On top of that, we have Broadcom reporting Wednesday and heavy economic data this week. There's a lot to unpack here. Let's get into it!
📊 Last Week Recap
February ended ugly. The S&P 500 closed the month down roughly 1%, its second monthly loss in the last 10 months. The Nasdaq fared worse, dropping about 3.4% for February as AI disruption fears continued hammering large cap tech.
Monday opened with a sharp selloff that then fully reversed by close. Classic chop and a great summary of the price action for the past four months. Then NVDA 0.00%↑ reported after hours Wednesday and beat on everything.
$1.62 EPS vs $1.53 expected.
Revenue $68.1B, up 73% year over year.
Guided Q1 to $78B.
And the stock sold off anyway. As we talked about last week, the bar for AI names (especially NVDA) is so high right now that even a blowout quarter isn't enough. The sell the news reaction that we game planned for in the neutral case is exactly what played out.
Thursday PPI came in hot at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected, with core PPI at 0.8% vs 0.3%. Friday the selling accelerated as the Dow dropped over 500 points. The inflation narrative got louder and rate cut expectations got pushed further out.
And then Friday night after the close, the Iran news hit.
The big rotation theme from 2026 continues. Energy is up 21% YTD. Materials up 17%. Tech is the worst performing sector at -4.4%.
📅 This Week's Economic Calendar
Monday, 3/2: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday, 3/4: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, & ISM Services PMI
Thursday, 3/5: Unemployment Claims
Friday, 3/6: Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales, Non-Farm Employment Change
The jobs report on Friday is the main event on the data side. After hot PPI and sticky PCE, the market needs to see a labor market that isn't overheating. Too strong and rate cuts get pushed even further out. Too weak and recession fears come back. There's a narrow lane for a goldilocks print.
But let's be honest, everyone is going to be watching oil prices Monday morning before they look at anything else.
Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
