This Week in Markets - June 1: Jobs Week Meets the Broadcom Test
A make-or-break May jobs report and Broadcom's AI numbers headline the first full week of summer
Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
We’re kicking off June with two of the biggest catalysts on the calendar landing in the same week: Friday’s May jobs report and Wednesday’s Broadcom earnings. The S&P 500 is riding a nine-week winning streak into record territory, the Dow just cracked 51,000 for the first time ever, and the AI trade is once again carrying the tape. The question is whether the data and the earnings can justify a market priced for perfection. Let’s get into it.
📊 Last Week Recap
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580, notching its ninth consecutive winning week, the longest weekly winning streak since 2023. The Dow stole the headline mid-week, pushing above 51,000 for the first time ever, while the Nasdaq finished around 26,972 to cap off a roughly 8% gain for the month of May.
Same story as the last several weeks: semiconductors and high growth tech did the heavy lifting. The AI infrastructure trade stayed firmly in control, and any dip got bought.
The other big driver was rates and geopolitics working together. The 10- ear yield, which had spiked to a 12-month high above 4.55% earlier in the month, eased back to around 4.45% as reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran agreement cooled the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. Lower yields plus de-escalation equals risk on, and that’s exactly what we got into the long weekend.
📅 This Week’s Economic Calendar
Monday, June 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI (10AM ET)
Tuesday, June 2: JOLTS Job Openings (10AM ET)
Wednesday, June 3: ADP Employment + ISM Services PMI.
Thursday, June 4: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Friday, June 5: Unemployment Rate (7:30AM ET)
Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
🔥 The Broadcom Test
Wednesday after the close, AVGO 0.00%↑ reports and it’s arguably the most important AI read we’ll get this quarter. Remember, the catalyst behind last week’s tech leadership was a Wells Fargo analyst dramatically raising AVGO’s price target on “gigawatt driven” AI demand. Now the company has to back it up. This past week, we saw DELL 0.00%↑ smash earnings expectations and the market will be looking to see Broadcom replicate similar results.
💰 Other Earnings to Watch
CrowdStrike ($CRWD), Wednesday: Reports the same night as AVGO. Guidance points to revenue around $1.36B (~24% growth) and EPS of $1.06-1.07. The cybersecurity bellwether and a key read on enterprise software spend.
Costco ($COST): Always a clean read on the resilient consumer and membership trends.
Lululemon ($LULU), Five Below ($FIVE), and Macy’s ($M): A spread of retail across income demographics - the consumer health check.
📈 Market Update
SPY 0.00%↑: The indices have successfully made another push to new ATHs with a strong push Thursday. Friday’s EOM rebalancing day saw some indecisiveness with rotations out of several sectors. Seasonality wise, June tends to be choppier and I would not be surprised if we see a slight pullback mid June and then we push higher into July.
Bitcoin: Price has become pretty detached from the rest of the market with relative weakness across the board. If anything, we should expect 74k to hold on the weekly and build a higher low. This type of action will take time to develop before we continue higher. Until we reclaim the weekly 50EMA, we are still chopping in a down trend. In my opinion, this is accumulation time.
🎯 Game Plan
Early week (Mon-Tue): Lower-stakes data with ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS. Let the tape set up. If small caps or cyclicals start to perk up on soft labor data, that’s the rotation we’ve been waiting for - watch IWM 0.00%↑ and XLF 0.00%↑ for early signs.
Wednesday night is the pivot: Broadcom and CrowdStrike both report after the close. If you’re trading the event, the cleaner play is often the sympathy basket ($NVDA, $MRVL, ANET 0.00%↑, AVGO 0.00%↑ ; the broader software and cyber complex on CRWD) rather than getting pinned in a single name into earnings. Position size accordingly, this is binary risk.
Friday is the jobs report: Reduce size and be nimble into 8:30 AM ET. A jobs number that’s “just right” (steady growth, no inflation scare) is the bull case for a tenth straight week. Hot or cold extremes both bring volatility. Don’t fight the print, let the dust settle and trade the reaction.
🔍 What I’m Watching:
NBIS 0.00%↑: With Leopold adding to his portfolio AND possible Anthropic deal, this name looks ready for higher. We’ve seen consistent respect of the daily 9/21 EMA cluster, showing you price is in an aggressive uptrend. We continue to make higher lows and second inside week closed near the highs.
QBTS 0.00%↑: With the US government pledging funding, the quantum trade seems to be back. We’ve built a really nice daily flag with 4 days of consolidation with lower volume nestled in the HVQ. A push past that pivot high of 31.55 will be the confirmation and the ATH of 46.55 doesn’t seem far off.
CIFR 0.00%↑: Massive weekly base building under 25.52 for over 204 days and these types of moves can be quick. We’ve seen the velocity of these types of breakouts on names like QCOM 0.00%↑, DELL 0.00%↑ and MU 0.00%↑.
INOD 0.00%↑: The tightness under the HVE from ER is very significant to me. A strong push past 115 will send price onto the next leg up. This is the second inside week as price continues to digest the large move it recently made. On the monthly, price just had its highest weekly close ever.
💡 My Take
We’re nine weeks into a rally that’s increasingly resting on a handful of AI names, and this is the week the market has to show its work. Broadcom needs to validate the spending thesis that’s been driving leadership, and the jobs report has to thread the needle between “strong enough” and “not so strong the Fed stays hawkish.”
I’m staying cautiously constructive but I’m not chasing. The trend is clearly up and I respect that. You don’t fight a nine week streak. If small caps and cyclicals finally join the party, this rally gets a lot healthier and more durable. If Broadcom stumbles or jobs comes in wrong, the air gets thin fast given how concentrated we are.
Either way, the playbook is the same as it’s been all year: stay nimble, respect the trend, and don’t be a hero into the catalysts.
See you next week. Trade well.
Will