This Week in Markets - April 20: Tesla, the Warsh Hearing, and New All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 reclaims all-time highs, Iran opens the Strait, oil crashes 9%, and now Tesla and the next Fed Chair take center stage.
Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.
The market just did something remarkable. After a nearly 10% drawdown from late March, the S&P 500 completed an 11-session V-shaped recovery and closed at a new all-time high above 7,000. The Nasdaq logged 11 consecutive up days, its longest winning streak since 2020. And on Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial vessels, sending oil down 9% in a single session.
This week is about whether the rally can keep going. Tesla headlines a massive earnings slate, the Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation hearing begins Tuesday, and retail sales data will show us how the consumer is holding up under elevated energy costs. There's a lot to unpack.
Let's get into it.
📊 Last Week Recap
This was the week the V-shaped recovery completed.
The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Tuesday, April 15, closing above 7,000 for the first time since late January. By Friday, the index had gained 4.5% on the week, its third consecutive week of big gains and the longest such streak since Halloween.
The Nasdaq was even stronger, surging nearly 7% for the week. Technology and growth stocks led the charge after lagging for most of Q1. The growth value performance gap that had been widening all year nearly closed entirely in just a few weeks. Growth outperformed value by more than 11% off the late March bottom.
The catalyst came on Friday. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that passage through the Strait of Hormuz "is declared completely open" for the remaining ceasefire period. Oil immediately dropped 9.4%, settling at $82.59 per barrel, back to where prices were in the early days of the conflict. The Dow surged as much as 1,100 points before closing up 868 points (1.8%). The S&P added 1.2%.
The week wasn't without turbulence. Monday tested the market when oil briefly surged above $100 after the U.S. Navy began blockading Iranian ports following the breakdown of peace talks. But markets recovered quickly after confirmation that non-Iranian shipping would be unaffected. That was the last real scare of the week.
Bank earnings kicked off Q1 season with strong results. Goldman Sachs posted record equities trading revenue and a 48% surge in investment banking fees. JPMorgan's markets revenue rose 20% to $11.6 billion with record trading activity. The war volatility was a gift to trading desks. Credit quality remained healthy across the board, and the tone from management was cautiously constructive.
ASML reported €8.8 billion in Q1 sales with a 53% gross margin and raised its full year revenue outlook to €36-40 billion (up from €34-39 billion). The AI spending cycle is alive and well. However, shares dipped on concerns about the US MATCH Act potentially restricting China DUV sales.
Netflix beat expectations with $12.25 billion in revenue (up 16% YoY) and EPS of $1.23 versus the $0.79 estimate. But shares still dropped 10% after hours. The issue wasn't the quarter. It was the guidance. Netflix maintained its 12-14% organic revenue growth target and 31.5% operating margin outlook, but the market wanted more after the beat. A classic "sell the news" reaction.
The VIX fell below 20, approaching pre-conflict levels. Credit spreads tightened. Risk premiums are fading across the board. The market is saying the worst of the Iran crisis is behind us.
📅 This Week's Economic Calendar
Tuesday, April 21: March Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET): the big one for the week. This is the first hard data on how consumers behaved during peak energy prices in March.
Headline CPI surged 0.9% that month, driven by a 21% spike in gasoline. Did consumers pull back, or did they keep spending? The answer matters for Q1 GDP estimates and the "soft landing" narrative.
Also: Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair confirmation hearing begins (more below).
Thursday, April 23: Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET). The labor market has been the unsung hero of this cycle. Claims have remained low despite geopolitical chaos, which supports consumer spending. Any uptick here would be noteworthy.
Thursday, April 23: April S&P Global Composite PMI. This is flash PMI data, which means it captures real time business conditions. This PMI will confirm whether manufacturing is bouncing back.
Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
🔥 Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing: Tuesday
This is arguably the most important non earnings event of the week. Trump's nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.
Warsh is a former Fed Governor who disclosed over $130 million in assets and pledged to divest. The hearing is expected to be contentious. Democrats are pushing back, and the central question is whether Warsh will serve the public or the president. Trump has repeatedly said he would only nominate someone willing to cut rates.
Why this matters for markets: the Fed Chair transition is happening in the middle of a bifurcated inflation picture (energy hot, core cooling) and a war driven economic backdrop. Any signal from Warsh about rate policy, independence from the White House, or how he views the current inflation situation will move interest rate expectations. Treasury yields could be volatile Tuesday.
🔥 TSLA 0.00%↑: Wednesday After Close
Tesla is the marquee earnings report of the week, and the setup is interesting.
The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, up 6.3% YoYbut slightly below the 365,645 consensus estimate. Analysts are expecting revenue of approximately $21.4 billion with GAAP EPS of $0.16 and adjusted EPS of $0.33. That adjusted number represents a 22% jump from Q1 2025's $0.27.
But the numbers aren't really the story. The Q&A session is what matters. Model S and X production has officially ended. Tesla is selling off limited Signature Edition units as a send off, which leaves a premium shaped hole in the lineup. Investors want answers on: what fills that gap, the timeline on next-gen models, margins trajectory with the lower-cost lineup, and progress on autonomy and robotaxi.
The stock rallied 5% on Friday ahead of earnings, suggesting Wall Street is positioning for a positive surprise.
Bull scenario: Revenue beats the $21.4B estimate, margins hold or expand despite the delivery miss, and Elon provides a concrete timeline on new products. $TSLA rips. Growth names like $RIVN and $LCID catch a sympathy bid.
Bear scenario: Margins compress, guidance disappoints, or the Q&A reveals that the next-gen vehicle timeline is further out than expected. Given the pre earnings rally, a miss gets sold hard. The stock is already up big off the March lows.
🔥 Wednesday Earnings Slate: More Than Just Tesla
Wednesday is stacked. Beyond Tesla, the lineup includes:
BA 0.00%↑: Aviation recovery narrative. Watch defense revenue and 737 MAX delivery commentary.
LRCX 0.00%↑ : Semiconductor equipment read, right behind ASML's strong report. Expected revenue around $5.7 billion.
NOW 0.00%↑ :Enterprise software bellwether. AI monetization and billings growth are the key metrics.
T 0.00%↑ : Wireless subscriber growth and fiber expansion. The dividend stock crowd will be watching.
TXN 0.00%↑ : Semiconductor cycle read. Inventory levels and analog chip demand.
IBM 0.00%↑: I and consulting revenue. The Watson/watsonx narrative continues.
UAL 0.00%↑: How airlines are managing jet fuel costs with oil at $82-85.
CSX 0.00%↑: Railroad volumes as an economic activity barometer.
This is a heavy day. If you're trading around earnings, Wednesday requires your full attention.
📈 Market Update
The S&P 500 closed above 7,100 on Friday, notching its third consecutive record close. The Dow finished at 49,447 (up 1.8% Friday), and the $SPY is now sitting comfortably at all-time highs. The V-shaped recovery from late March is complete. The 10% drawdown has been fully erased, and the death cross from March is quickly becoming irrelevant as the 50-day moving average curls back up. The market is up more than 12% off the late-March bottom.
I would not be surprised if we get a small pullback to start the week and let the daily EMAs play some catch up. Previous ATH as a retest spot is definitely on the table and where I would be watching for dip buy opportunities.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin surged to around $77,000-$78,000 on Friday, its highest level since before the conflict escalation. The oil-BTC inverse correlation continues. As crude falls and risk appetite returns, crypto benefits. The $80K test is in play if geopolitical conditions keep improving.
This is the spot we’ve been eyeing this whole down turn. We’ve finally seen the EMAs flip back into an uptrend and the test is whether price defends above 74k.
The theme: Last week was about the geopolitical relief trade. This week is about whether earnings can sustain the momentum at all time highs. The bar is higher now. Markets are pricing in a lot of good news, and any disappointment, whether from Tesla, retail sales, or the Warsh hearing, gets amplified when you're sitting at records.
🔍 What I’m Watching:
MU 0.00%↑: Massive weekly consolidation with highest weekly close ever on increasing volume. This is a memory name that does not look like it’s done. The setup here looks exactly like SNDK 0.00%↑ and WDC 0.00%↑ before their continuation runs.
March cons are in play to target 500+
CCJ 0.00%↑: Strong energy name with a weekly curl on large volume. While mega caps have been getting a lot of attention, this name has silently been drifting upwards. This climb on higher volume gives room for a potential 135+ test quick.
GLW 0.00%↑: Very nice weekly flag + previous ATH retest. Notice how on the daily hammer we swept the lows on aggressive buying. With this name being in theme + an early leader in the rally, this is a name that can continue after this retest.
💡 My Take
Three weeks ago this market was in free fall and everyone was talking about a bear market. Now we're at all time highs. That's the lesson: markets discount the future, not the present. By the time the headlines were worst, the bottom was already in.
I think the Strait of Hormuz reopening is the single most important development for this market right now. Not because the war is over. It isn't. But because it takes the tail risk of $120+ oil off the table, at least temporarily. And that matters for everything: consumer spending, inflation expectations, rate cuts, and earnings multiples.
The Warsh hearing is underrated. Markets haven't fully priced in what a Fed Chair transition means in this environment. If Warsh signals dovish intentions or any willingness to cut rates preemptively, that's rocket fuel. If the hearing turns into a political circus, it adds uncertainty to the rate path, which is a headwind.
Tesla is the most important earnings report of the week. Not because of the numbers, but because of what it says about the growth narrative. The market just rotated hard back into growth and tech off the March bottom. If Tesla delivers and the Q&A inspires confidence, the growth trade has legs. If it disappoints, it raises questions about whether the rotation was just short covering.
This is again not another week to be a hero. We're at all time highs with a loaded calendar. If the market holds these levels through earnings, the path of least resistance is higher. If it doesn't, you'll have better entries below.
See you next week. Trade well.
Will