Two things broke at once last week: The AI capex trade cracked when Alphabet told the market it would spend $205 billion this year, and the Middle East escalated to the point where Brent briefly touched triple digits. The result was a second straight losing week for all four major indexes, with the Nasdaq taking the worst of it, and a rates market that suddenly stopped pricing cuts and started pricing hikes.

That sets us up for a huge week of catalysts: Wednesday is Kevin Warsh’s third FOMC decision as chair and tech earnings.

Let’s get into it.

⚡ Last Week Overview

• Every major index lost ground, with the bulk of the damage in tech. There’s a 175 basis point gap between the Dow and the Nasdaq in one week, showing a clear rotation out of long duration growth.

• Alphabet broke the AI trade by beating on everything that matters. $GOOGL posted revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24%, EPS of $9.11, and Google Cloud growth of 82%, and the stock still fell roughly 5% after raising 2026 capex guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion against a Street estimate near $188 billion. Q2 capex alone was $44.9 billion, double last year. The Magnificent Seven shed nearly $800 billion in market value on Thursday. The market has stopped paying up for AI spending and started asking when it earns a return.

• Oil went vertical on Iran, and the bond market noticed. Brent settled Thursday at $97.87 and traded above $100 intraday after Iran backed Houthi forces struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, on top of ongoing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.7%, the highest since January 15, 2025. Friday brought relief: WTI fell 4.3% to $88.25 and the 10-year settled back to 4.67%.

• New tariffs landed Friday with almost no market reaction. Duties of 10% to 12.5% took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on 60 trading partners covering 99.4% of US imports, imposed under Section 301 after the Supreme Court struck down the prior reciprocal regime in February. Bitcoin finished around $64,000, still up about 3% on the week despite the Friday fade.

🃏 The Wild Card: Does Warsh signal that the next move is a hike?

The funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75%, and essentially nobody expects that to change Wednesday. Markets put the odds of a hold at roughly 80%. Fed funds futures now imply about an 82% chance of a hike by September, up from under 53% a week ago, driven almost entirely by oil. The June minutes already showed nine of eighteen policymakers seeing a case for at least one increase before year end, and Chair Kevin Warsh, confirmed in May by a 54-45 Senate vote, has said plainly that prices are too high. This is a non-SEP meeting, so there is no dot plot to hide behind. The statement language and the 2:30 p.m. press conference will be the primary focus followed by June PCE and Q2 GDP less than 24 hours later.

The constructive path runs through the distinction between a supply shock and a demand problem. Core PCE last printed at 3.4% year over year for May, the highest since October 2023, but the acceleration is heavily energy driven, and Friday’s 4.3% drop in WTI is a reminder that geopolitical premium can leave as fast as it arrives. If Warsh frames the oil move as a relative price change the Fed should look through, holds the statement close to June’s language, and Thursday’s core PCE comes in near consensus, the September hike pricing unwinds quickly and the rates headwind on equities lifts.

The tail to respect is a hawkish hold that lands on top of a hot PCE print. If Warsh explicitly opens the door to September and core PCE surprises to the upside on Thursday, the market has to reprice a hiking cycle it spent the entire first half assuming was over, and it has to do that while the four largest companies in the index report capex plans the market has already decided it hates.

🗓️ The Week, Day by Day

Tuesday, July 28: FOMC day one, Conference Board consumer confidence for July at 10:00 a.m. ET, and a heavy earnings slate: , , , , , and .

Wednesday, July 29: The main event. FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET, Warsh press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, then , , , , and after the close.

On earnings, capex guidance is the only line that matters after what Alphabet did. Microsoft is guiding to roughly $190 billion and Meta to $125 billion to $145 billion for 2026, and the market’s reaction function has flipped: bigger is no longer better.

Thursday, July 30: Q2 GDP advance estimate and June PCE, both at 8:30 a.m. ET, then , and after the close. This is the densest day of the quarter. Atlanta Fed GDPNow last had Q2 tracking at 1.7%, which would be a clear slowdown, and core PCE is the number that validates or destroys the September hike trade.

Apple is the one mega cap that is not a capex story so it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts to this one.

Friday, July 31: Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, final July University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. ET, and plus . No market holiday.

📈 Market Update

:

The market continues to print a divergence and is reflected through the $SPY’s strength vs $QQQ. We are still clinging onto the daily 50EMA, which is largely supported by the Dow’s strength.

When compared to , you can easily tell that this is a very harsh rotation/profit taking situation out of a lot of the tech companies that have been spending massively on capex or have ran up a lot.

This thesis is further supported by tech’s prominent weakness and breaking under the June 9th low as of Friday close.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to fight at this 65k level and looks to be establishing a bottom near here. The rotation from tech into crypto is a healthy sign of a rotation and nothing else. Like any market cycle, we will get moments of chop and consolidation while individual names get rotated in and out of.

🔍 What I’m Watching

: close to two months of digestion with a lot of potential earning catalysts this upcoming week

Over $470 is key, and biggest focus is weekly structure since the daily is a bit messier

: very similar look to with a large weekly consolidation period

Over $51 is key and a weekly close above this heavy sell zone

: huge weekly hammer off the previous ATH pivot with other healthcare ERs coming up

also shaping up wanting higher, and can be a great sympathy play as 2nd heaviest weighting

💡 My Take

The rotation underneath the indexes is the more actionable signal. A 175 basis point weekly gap between the Dow and the Nasdaq, with small caps also lagging, tells you money is leaving long duration growth and it is not simply going to cash.

The warning signs are that the relative strength names are no longer the high growth companies anymore. It’s in defensive names like Oil, healthcare and consumerable names.

Let the Fed speak, let the mega caps report, let PCE print, and take the trade Thursday afternoon with actual information instead of Tuesday with a guess. The setups will still be there. The specific thing I do not want to do is chase an oil driven inflation narrative that could reverse on a single headline out of the Strait of Hormuz, in either direction.

Work with me 1-on-1: I keep a few private spots for traders who want direct help with their process. Details here.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

Last week broke a two week win streak, and it broke it in a specific place. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% while the Nasdaq gave up 2.9%, but the real damage was concentrated in semiconductors, where a Chinese model release reopened the question nobody wanted to answer: what if frontier AI gets cheap? Meanwhile oil ripped higher on escalating US and Iran hostilities, and Treasuries barely moved.

So we walk into a week where the tape has already decided it is nervous, and the calendar hands it Alphabet and Tesla on Wednesday, Intel on Thursday, and a Fed decision waiting just past the weekend.

Let’s get into it.

⚡ Last Week Overview

• The selling was narrow, not broad. The S&P closed down 1.6% on the week and the Dow fell 406.55 points Friday but the Russell 2000 closed just -0.5% on the week. Small caps barely flinched. This was a megacap tech problem, not a market problem, and Netflix made the point by falling roughly 8% Friday after guiding Q3 revenue to $12.9 billion against $13.0 billion consensus. (Barchart, Yahoo Finance, CNBC)

• Semiconductors fell into a bear market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped roughly 11% on the week, its worst since March 2025, putting it more than 20% below its late June record. Context matters here: that index had run 105% from its March low to that peak. Applied Materials fell 5.6% Friday, Nvidia fell 2.2% and briefly lost the world’s most valuable company title to Apple. (Bloomberg)

• Oil was the week’s biggest mover, due to geopolitical tension. Brent surged 4.6% Friday to $88.10 and WTI gained 4.5% to $82.49, capping a week up more than 14%, after Kuwait said Iran struck a power and water desalination plant. Iran said it hit US targets across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Syria. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil, which is why this repriced so violently. (CNBC, Al Jazeera)

• The best inflation news in six years got upstaged. June CPI fell 0.4%, the first monthly decline in more than six years, pulling annual inflation down to 3.5% from 4.2%, with core flat on the month. PPI came in cool too. But new Fed chair Kevin Warsh spent his first congressional testimony refusing to take the win, telling lawmakers the improvement “isn’t mission accomplished,” and September hike odds only eased to about 60% from 75%. The 10 year finished flat at 4.55% as the soft data and the oil shock canceled each other out, while Bitcoin slipped under $63,000 after failing twice at $65,000, trading down with equities rather than as a hedge. (CNBC, CNN, Fortune)

🃏 The Wild Card: Does the AI capex story survive Wednesday night?

The market spent eighteen months paying up for a simple premise: frontier AI is expensive, compute is scarce, and whoever owns the compute owns the margin. Alphabet and Tesla both report after the close on Wednesday, July 22, followed by Intel on Thursday. Alphabet is one of the largest capex spenders in the world and Intel is the clearest read on whether chip demand is actually softening or simply being rerated by sentiment. Three days from now we get numbers instead of narrative.

The constructive path is not complicated, and it is also the most likely one. Alphabet posts another quarter of strong Google Cloud growth, points to AI revenue that is actually showing up in the income statement rather than the capex line, and management frames heavy spending as demand-constrained rather than speculative. Cheaper models cut both ways: if inference costs collapse, the companies that own distribution and data get more profitable, not less, and Alphabet owns as much distribution as anyone. Add a Fed that is widely expected to hold steady next week and a 10 year yield sitting calmly at 4.55%, and the setup favors a bounce in the names that were sold on association rather than on fundamentals. A 20% drawdown in semis after a 105% run is a normal correction inside an uptrend, and the burden of proof is still on the bears until the earnings say otherwise.

The tail risk is a two sided squeeze. If Alphabet guides capex higher while cloud growth decelerates, the market reads it as spending into a commoditizing product, and the multiple compression that hit chips last week spreads to the hyperscalers. Layer on oil: Brent at $88 after a 14% week is a live inflation input, and a genuine Strait of Hormuz disruption would push energy costs into a Fed that meets July 28 and 29 with inflation already elevated. Two independent shocks that both argue for lower multiples arriving in the same ten day window is how orderly corrections turn disorderly. Position sizes should reflect that this week can gap.

🗓️ The Week Ahead

Wednesday, July 22: , , , and all report earnings.

Alphabet is the referendum on AI capex discipline and cloud growth. Watch Alphabet’s capex guidance line more closely than its EPS.

Texas Instruments matters more than its size suggests: it is the cleanest analog read on non-AI chip demand, meaning autos and industrials.

Thursday, July 23: Initial and continuing jobless claims, plus the Chicago Fed national activity index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing. Claims are expected around 214,000 against 208,000 prior.

Earnings from , and

Friday, July 24: S&P Global flash PMIs for July, manufacturing, services and composite, plus June new home sales with consensus near 610,000 against 580,000 prior.

Earnings from

The flash PMIs are the first look at July activity and they carry an embedded prices paid component, which is where the oil spike would first show up. American Express is the high end consumer read.

No market holidays this week. Next week is the heavy one: the FOMC meets July 28 and 29 with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference Wednesday afternoon, durable goods lands July 27, and Moonshot releases the Kimi K3 weights publicly that same day. (Federal Reserve, Chase)

📈 Market Update

:

The S&P continues to hold despite the heavy tech selling and taking profit. The ETF is getting propped up through , financials and healthcare.

This is now over 7 weeks of price digestion and we are once again at the weekly 9EMA. Assuming buyers continue to step in, we will continue to chop and consolidate. I would not be too concerned until this structure starts to break.

:

Tech definitely looks a lot uglier than the rest of the market, with heavy profit taking on previous leaders. The one saving grace is that this could be the makings of a double bottom at the lows made on June 9.

There is still a lot work to be done: we either need to see the previous leaders start to act more constructively or new leaders need to emerge.

Until tech starts to lead again, I don’t think a sustained rally in the markets is possible.

Bitcoin:

Crypto continues to trade against the market! Price is acting constructive here, and trying to reclaim the daily 50EMA.

While there is more work to be done, a reclaim of these levels and taking out that 67k high would be a great start.

If you are a believer in the cycle, this is still the stage of accumulation.

🔍 What I’m Watching

- Strong healthcare name compared to its counterparts with a nice weekly 9 tap + daily trying to reclaim previous ATH & daily EMAs

If this reclaim continues, will be looking to trade this earnings run up and target 1238+

:

Software likely seems to be the focus going into the first half of the week

Despite the tech selling pressure, software is holding up and becoming outliers.

had a nice pop Friday with intraday consolidation.

Looking for over this 368 pivot to target 375+

:

Another software name that has done a low volume backtest of a previous pivot

Could be a great name to add with large cap tech reporting earnings in the next two weeks

Over 161 will be fireworks

:

A large weekly base developing under 280 with price drifting upwards riding the daily 9EMA

The best breakout would be a high volume push past 280 instead of the continued slow upward drift.

💡 My Take

I am not trying to catch the semiconductor bottom this week, and I would push back on anyone framing a 20% drawdown as an obvious gift. The honest read is that we do not have the information yet. Buying a bounce on Monday is a bet on a press release. Waiting until Thursday means buying after Alphabet and Intel have actually spoken, at a price that may be higher but with a thesis that is real.

What earns attention is the divergence in last week’s tape. The Russell 2000 lost half a percent while the Nasdaq lost 2.9%, and rates went nowhere. That is not a growth scare or a liquidity event. That is a repricing of one crowded theme. If that holds through this week’s earnings, the rotation trade is more interesting than the dip buying trade, and the cyclical and energy names have a real tailwind with Brent at $88. If it does not hold, if small caps start breaking down too and credit spreads widen, then this was the first leg of something larger and cash is the position.

The setup this week is defined by two binary events I cannot forecast, so the edge is not in predicting them, it is in sizing so that either outcome leaves me able to trade Thursday. Practically: keep size below normal into Wednesday’s close, avoid short dated options through the Alphabet and Tesla prints because implied volatility is already paying for the move you are hoping for, and let Thursday’s reaction to Intel tell you whether last week was information or emotion. The trend from the March lows is still intact. Nothing that happened last week changed that. Respect it, but do not pay for the privilege of being early.

Work with me 1-on-1: I keep a few private spots for traders who want direct help with their process. Details here.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

The averages closed out another winning week, with the S&P 500 at 7,575.39 and the Dow at 52,637.01 after setting fresh record highs midweek. But the calm on the surface is hiding the real story. We are now living under a Kevin Warsh Fed, and the market has spent the last month repricing from rate cuts to rate hikes, with futures now placing roughly 70% odds on a September hike.

This is the week that math gets tested. June CPI, June PPI, two days of Warsh testimony, and the banks kicking off earnings season all land inside five sessions. Everything the tape does this week runs through that single question of whether the Fed hikes again.

Let’s get into it.

⚡ Last Week Overview

• The big averages won the week, but the small caps stayed home. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% Friday to 7,575.39, the Nasdaq added 0.3% to 26,281.61, and the Dow gained 149.60 points to 52,637.01. The Russell 2000 went the other way, slipping 0.63% to 2,973.79. When large caps make records while small caps lag, that is the market telling you it wants safety and scale, not risk.

• Semiconductors were the whole show, in both directions. A gauge of chipmakers sank more than 4.5% midweek on fresh worries about whether AI spending justifies the valuations, then sentiment flipped when SK Hynix soared 13% in its $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut, the largest foreign IPO to date. The AI memory trade is still the market’s pulse.

• Rates and oil both leaned against the bulls. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.569%, and WTI crude held around $71.91 as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept a bid under energy, even after crude’s steep 20.4% drop in June. Higher yields plus firmer oil is the exact cocktail a hawkish Fed does not want to see.

• A soft June jobs report was the week’s relief valve. Weak June labor data gave the doves something to point at and eased fears of an imminent hike. That is the crack in the hawkish case, and it is why this week’s inflation prints matter so much.

• Bitcoin quietly had its best stretch since spring. Bitcoin traded up to $64,023, gaining about 1.94% and logging its best week since March as inflation breakevens firmed. Crypto is trading like an inflation hedge again, not a risk asset.

🃏 The Wild Card: Does June CPI lock in a September rate hike, or hand the doves an exit?

The single biggest open question this week is whether the data confirms the market’s move toward a September hike or gives it a reason to back off. The calendar could not be more concentrated. June CPI hits Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and roughly ninety minutes later Kevin Warsh takes his seat in front of the House Financial Services Committee for his first congressional testimony as chair. June PPI and a second day of Warsh testimony follow Wednesday. So the market gets the inflation read and the Fed’s live reaction to it inside the same 48 hours, with no time to look away.

The clean path runs through the headline number. Consensus looks for headline CPI to actually dip 0.1% month over month, trimming the annual rate to about 3.9% as June’s collapse in energy prices flows through. A soft headline is the most likely outcome, and it gives the doves a talking point and lets Warsh sound firm without committing to September. That is the version where yields ease, the record-setting large caps hold, and the small caps finally get some room to breathe. The catch is that the number that actually moves this market is core, not headline, and core is still expected to grind up another 0.3% with the annual trend stuck near 2.9%. A friendly headline sitting on top of sticky core is exactly the setup that lets bulls and bears both claim victory for a day before the real trend reasserts.

The downside tail is a hot core print landing in front of a chair who has already told the world inflation is “too high” and whose colleagues have shifted hard, with nine of eighteen FOMC participants now penciling in at least one hike this year and BofA calling for three hikes to a 4.25% to 4.5% range. If core runs hot and Warsh leans into it under oath, September odds go from likely to near certain, the 10-year pushes higher, and the same mega-cap valuations that led the market up become the ones with the most to lose. That is the scenario to size for even if you do not expect it.

🗓️ The Week Ahead

Tuesday, July 14: The main event. June CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET sets the tone for the whole week, and Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 a.m. right on top of it. Then the banks open earnings season, with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all reporting. Watch core CPI over the headline, and inside the banks watch net interest income and loan loss provisions for the real state of the consumer and credit.

Wednesday, July 15: June PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the second half of the inflation picture, and Warsh moves over to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. for round two. Earnings from ASML, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock fill out the day. Watch PPI for pipeline pressure that feeds future CPI, and watch ASML’s order book as the cleanest signal on whether the AI capex cycle is still accelerating.

Thursday, July 16: A double dose of the consumer with June retail sales and weekly initial jobless claims, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then the marquee earnings drop: TSMC, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Abbott, and Netflix, which is expected to post $0.79 per share on revenue up 13.7% to $12.6 billion. Watch retail sales for whether the soft jobs data is bleeding into spending, and watch TSMC’s guidance as the definitive word on AI chip demand.

Friday, July 17: The week closes on housing and sentiment, with June housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m., industrial production at 9:15 a.m., and the preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment plus its inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m. That last one matters most this week because the Fed is obsessed with inflation, the market will read the UMich inflation expectations line closely for any sign that consumers are bracing for higher prices.

Next week the earnings season broadens out of the banks and into mega-cap tech, and the market gets its first clean look at whether this week’s CPI actually changed the September hike math.

📈 Market Update

The market put in a daily and weekly hammer leaving us only about half a percent away from ATH. Another clear rotation has begun with weakness in chips like and other names that have been leaders: , and .

From here, we’ve seen push up with a lot of buying pressure. This could be the moment of the year where large caps finally participate in the rally. A perfect two week window for an earnings run up.

Tech still a little bit of a lagger, but shows the potential for the next leg up. Ideally, we want tech to lead so there’s a lot of catch up to do. If this does happen, we should get a large breadth move with a lot of participation.

Bitcoin:

Price is trying to establish a bottom here, but there is still a lot of work to be done. We will keep DCA’ing slowly with a timeline of around end of next year 2027 as take profit zone. This is about 12-18 months before the 2028 halving, which has historically been the peak.

🔍 What I’m Watching

5 names on the watchlist this week:

Strong bounce off the weekly 21 sending price right back to test ATH

Along with , these two of the MAG7 are leading the charge for the large cap tech rally.

It’s been a while but we’re starting to see move with the market instead of against it now. This to me is first signs of a character change + highest weekly close ever.

We can push to price discovery here quick before ER.

Weekly ended up closing under the 436 level

Seeing how there is some rotation out previous leaders, I would not be surprised if we can get another daily 21EMA tap for entry

This consolidation may continue for a couple more weeks before the next pop up

Large 600+ day monthly base over this 50 level

If price can push past again, this will be attempt number three at a breakout

Despite rising competition, enterprise platform growth is creating positive growth for the company.

If we can get past this 50 level, looking for 55+

another massive weekly base with huge volume spikes at the right side

two indecision daily candles to close off previous week right under 40.75

daily close above this will be giving this breakout another shot, which opens the door to 50+

huge weekly curl that has taken a year to cook up

consumers keep spending on debt and is a clear benefactor of this behavior

price may require some consolidation here but sets up for a nice opportunity if 186.75 is broken

💡 My Take

The instinct into a week like this is to have a strong opinion about the CPI number and position for it. I would resist that. The market has already done most of the repricing work, moving from cuts to a 70% chance of a September hike, which means a lot of the hawkish outcome is in the price already. Betting hard on the exact print is a coin flip dressed up as analysis, and the tape has a habit of punishing people who confuse a forecast with an edge.

What I am actually doing is respecting the trend while sizing for the tail. The large cap trend is up and the records are real, so I am not fighting it. But the leadership is narrow, which has been the theme this year AND global tensions are still possible. That is a market that can keep working right up until it doesn’t, so this is a week to keep position sizes honest and to let the reaction to CPI and Warsh define the range before adding risk.

Concretely, that means watching how price behaves in the hour after the CPI release rather than trading the print itself, keeping an eye on the 10 year as the real tell, and treating any hot core reading paired with a hawkish Warsh as a signal to defend rather than a dip to buy. If the data comes in soft and the small caps finally join, that is a cleaner tape to lean into. Until then, patience is a position.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

New format this week: I’m walking you through the week the way I actually prepare for it, day by day, with what each event means and what I’m doing about it. Let’s get into it.

⚡ Last Week Overview

• The jobs report missed badly. June payrolls came in at 57,000 vs 115,000 expected, and April/May were revised down a combined 74,000. Unemployment ticked DOWN to 4.2%, but only because participation fell to its lowest since March 2021 (CNBC). Soft enough to quiet the rate-hike conversation, not soft enough to scream recession (Kiplinger).

• The rotation went vertical. The Dow ripped nearly 600 points to a record close of 52,900 on Wednesday while the Nasdaq slid, dragged by chips (CNBC). By Thursday’s holiday-shortened close the S&P sat at 7,483 and the Nasdaq at 25,833, both green on the week despite the chip carnage underneath (TheStreet).

• Chips took the hit. A BofA “bubble” call, reports of Anthropic building its own AI chips with Samsung, and SK Hynix slowing HBM expansion knocked the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index roughly 12% over two sessions, with Micron down 13% in a day (Axios, KuCoin).

• Korea got margin-called. The KOSPI fell 6.4% within minutes of Thursday’s open, broke below 8,000, and tripped its third emergency halt in two weeks (Investing.com). Korean retail margin debt is at a record 38 trillion won, and Samsung plus SK Hynix are 53% of the index (Korea Herald). I broke down the full leverage chain in Saturday’s video if you missed it.

🃏 The Wild Card: A Leveraged Unwind Meets a Silent Calendar

This week is light on data, which cuts both ways. Nothing on the calendar is big enough to rescue the tape, and nothing is big enough to break it either, so the chip flush gets to resolve on its own supply and demand (Schwab). The open question: is the forced selling out of Korea done, or does record margin debt have another leg of liquidation in it?

The path higher is straightforward. The deleveraging exhausts itself, Samsung’s preliminary numbers land firm, and Wednesday’s minutes read calmer than feared after the jobs miss. In that world the oversold chip names bounce off support and the “healthy flush” read wins. Honestly, the more likely outcome is quieter than that: with no catalyst big enough to force a resolution, the tape chops in a range on thin summer liquidity while everyone waits for CPI and bank earnings the following week.

In all honesty, memory names don't look like they have built in a blow off the top quite yet. Names like are still priced as under valued given the backlog they have.

What I’m guarding against is the other tail. If the minutes reveal the committee was closer to a hike than the market wants to believe, or Samsung guides soft and confirms the memory demand doubts, the calendar offers nothing to catch the knife. With Korean margin debt still at records, weakness forces more selling, and the second leg down in chips arrives before any data can help.

🗓️ The Week, Day by Day

Monday, July 6: Markets reopen from the long weekend to the first full session since the jobs miss. No major US data. The tell comes overnight: Seoul trades Sunday night our time, and whether the KOSPI stabilizes or trips halt number four sets the tone for chips at our open. Watch whether the semis hold last week’s lows.

Tuesday, July 7: Quiet on the US calendar. The one to watch for is Samsung’s preliminary Q2 numbers, which typically drop in the first week of July (Samsung IR). It’s the first hard datapoint on whether memory demand justifies the run Korea leveraged itself into, and every US memory name trades off it.

Wednesday, July 8: The main event. FOMC minutes from Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair drop at 2pm ET (Kiplinger). Warsh skipped the dot plot, so these minutes are the closest thing we get to his playbook. The question isn’t what they decided, it’s how close the committee actually was to hiking BEFORE payrolls came in soft. Consumer credit, wholesale inventories, and crude inventories land the same day.

Thursday, July 9: Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims. After a 57k payrolls print, the weekly claims data graduates from background noise to the live pulse of the labor market. A jump in continuing claims would feed the slowdown narrative; steady claims would support the “cooling, not cracking” read.

Friday, July 10: Delta reports before the open and unofficially opens Q2 earnings season (Yahoo Finance). Consensus sees EPS down about 31% year over year. Beyond the airline itself, it’s the first real read on whether the consumer showed up for summer.

And then the calendar loads up: CPI lands Tuesday July 14, PPI on the 15th, the big banks kick off earnings the same week, and TSMC reports July 16 (TSMC). This week is the deep breath before all of that.

📈 Market Update

- Along with the Dow, the S&P is a lot stronger than tech and the divergence is largely driven by chip stocks pulling back. The flag is tighter and clearer on with price still above all EMAs.

Financials like and were really strong as of Thursday close as well as healthcare names like , , and .

- Tech is a lot weaker and revisiting the daily 50EMA. For an uptrend and for this flag to be valid, this is the spot for price to bounce. So I’m looking this week to see if there is another rotation out of financials and healthcare back into tech.

Regardless, a lot of tech name charts have been broken and need some more time to become structurally tradable again.

Bitcoin - Meanwhile, we’re seeing a rotation out of chip stocks into crypto for this weekend. Price is currently working on a weekly hammer, which is a good start for potential bottoming price action.

The bottoming is expected around September to October of this year but this current action could be a good precursor.

🔍 What I’m Watching

- One of the MAG7 names that has proven to be strong when the rest of the market is a little weaker.

The weekly retest of the 21EMA + previous ATH range is really interesting here as we approach earnings late July. We can definitely see a continuation move to new highs soon here.

Looking for low volume pullbacks to 300 to let the daily EMAs play catch up before the next push up.

- Setting up really nicely for an attempt at a breakout over 111.22 to potentially test the local high at around 122.

The price action here is significant because we are seeing detachment off the EMAs. This indicates momentum beginning to pick up. With names like these, we’ll usually see a huge push one day with high volume and then it drifts upwards afterwards.

- strong energy name with a low volume retracement into daily EMAs. I would love to see price rebound and tighten up near the 1181 base level before we break higher as an earnings run up.

This company has great fundamentals and a sharp growth story, so a run up would not be surprising.

💡 My Take

Everyone wants to know if the AI trade just topped. Wrong question for this week. What broke the chips wasn’t demand, it was positioning: a two stock index doubled on borrowed money, the margin calls hit, and the selling went global. Positioning problems resolve differently than demand problems. They end when the leverage is gone, not when the story changes, and no report this week tells you which day that is. Price tells you. That’s why the levels matter more than the headlines for the next five sessions.

My posture: I said it in Saturday’s video and I’ll say it here, the US memory play does not look like a blow-off top to me yet. But “not a top” is not the same as “buy Monday.” I want to see the semis hold last week’s lows and put in a higher low before I trust a bounce, and I want Samsung’s preliminary numbers to confirm the demand side is intact. If both show up, the oversold names earn the benefit of the doubt. If the lows break with Korean margin debt still at records, I step aside and let the forced sellers finish.

Process over prediction this week: let Monday and Tuesday show you whether the flush is done, treat Wednesday’s minutes as a repricing risk rather than a trade, and keep size small until the levels confirm. The loaded week is the one after this one. The traders who survive the quiet week with their capital and their patience intact get to play it.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

Last week was the first real gut check the AI trade has taken in months. The Nasdaq Composite shed 4.6% on the week and posted five st…

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Last week handed us a genuine regime question. In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, the FOMC left the funds rate a…

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This week comes down to one room. Kevin Warsh runs his first meeting as Fed chair on Wednesday, and he inherits a brutal hand: inflati…

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We’re kicking off June with two of the biggest catalysts on the calendar landing in the same week: Friday’s May jobs report and Wednesday’s Broadcom earnings. The S&P 500 is riding a nine-week winning streak into record territory, the Dow just cracked 51,000 for the first time ever, and the AI trade is once again carrying the tape. The question is whether the data and the earnings can justify a market priced for perfection. Let’s get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580, notching its ninth consecutive winning week, the longest weekly winning streak since 2023. The Dow stole the headline mid-week, pushing above 51,000 for the first time ever, while the Nasdaq finished around 26,972 to cap off a roughly 8% gain for the month of May.

Same story as the last several weeks: semiconductors and high growth tech did the heavy lifting. The AI infrastructure trade stayed firmly in control, and any dip got bought.

The other big driver was rates and geopolitics working together. The 10- ear yield, which had spiked to a 12-month high above 4.55% earlier in the month, eased back to around 4.45% as reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran agreement cooled the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. Lower yields plus de-escalation equals risk on, and that’s exactly what we got into the long weekend.

📅 This Week’s Economic Calendar

Monday, June 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI (10AM ET)

Tuesday, June 2: JOLTS Job Openings (10AM ET)

Wednesday, June 3: ADP Employment + ISM Services PMI.

Thursday, June 4: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

Friday, June 5: Unemployment Rate (7:30AM ET)

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

🔥 The Broadcom Test

Wednesday after the close, reports and it’s arguably the most important AI read we’ll get this quarter. Remember, the catalyst behind last week’s tech leadership was a Wells Fargo analyst dramatically raising AVGO’s price target on “gigawatt driven” AI demand. Now the company has to back it up. This past week, we saw smash earnings expectations and the market will be looking to see Broadcom replicate similar results.

💰 Other Earnings to Watch

CrowdStrike ($CRWD), Wednesday: Reports the same night as AVGO. Guidance points to revenue around $1.36B (~24% growth) and EPS of $1.06-1.07. The cybersecurity bellwether and a key read on enterprise software spend.

Costco ($COST): Always a clean read on the resilient consumer and membership trends.

Lululemon ($LULU), Five Below ($FIVE), and Macy’s ($M): A spread of retail across income demographics - the consumer health check.

📈 Market Update

: The indices have successfully made another push to new ATHs with a strong push Thursday. Friday’s EOM rebalancing day saw some indecisiveness with rotations out of several sectors. Seasonality wise, June tends to be choppier and I would not be surprised if we see a slight pullback mid June and then we push higher into July.

Bitcoin: Price has become pretty detached from the rest of the market with relative weakness across the board. If anything, we should expect 74k to hold on the weekly and build a higher low. This type of action will take time to develop before we continue higher. Until we reclaim the weekly 50EMA, we are still chopping in a down trend. In my opinion, this is accumulation time.

🎯 Game Plan

Early week (Mon-Tue): Lower-stakes data with ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS. Let the tape set up. If small caps or cyclicals start to perk up on soft labor data, that’s the rotation we’ve been waiting for - watch and for early signs.

Wednesday night is the pivot: Broadcom and CrowdStrike both report after the close. If you’re trading the event, the cleaner play is often the sympathy basket ($NVDA, $MRVL, , ; the broader software and cyber complex on CRWD) rather than getting pinned in a single name into earnings. Position size accordingly, this is binary risk.

Friday is the jobs report: Reduce size and be nimble into 8:30 AM ET. A jobs number that’s “just right” (steady growth, no inflation scare) is the bull case for a tenth straight week. Hot or cold extremes both bring volatility. Don’t fight the print, let the dust settle and trade the reaction.

🔍 What I’m Watching:

: With Leopold adding to his portfolio AND possible Anthropic deal, this name looks ready for higher. We’ve seen consistent respect of the daily 9/21 EMA cluster, showing you price is in an aggressive uptrend. We continue to make higher lows and second inside week closed near the highs.

: With the US government pledging funding, the quantum trade seems to be back. We’ve built a really nice daily flag with 4 days of consolidation with lower volume nestled in the HVQ. A push past that pivot high of 31.55 will be the confirmation and the ATH of 46.55 doesn’t seem far off.

: Massive weekly base building under 25.52 for over 204 days and these types of moves can be quick. We’ve seen the velocity of these types of breakouts on names like , and .

: The tightness under the HVE from ER is very significant to me. A strong push past 115 will send price onto the next leg up. This is the second inside week as price continues to digest the large move it recently made. On the monthly, price just had its highest weekly close ever.

💡 My Take

We’re nine weeks into a rally that’s increasingly resting on a handful of AI names, and this is the week the market has to show its work. Broadcom needs to validate the spending thesis that’s been driving leadership, and the jobs report has to thread the needle between “strong enough” and “not so strong the Fed stays hawkish.”

I’m staying cautiously constructive but I’m not chasing. The trend is clearly up and I respect that. You don’t fight a nine week streak. If small caps and cyclicals finally join the party, this rally gets a lot healthier and more durable. If Broadcom stumbles or jobs comes in wrong, the air gets thin fast given how concentrated we are.

Either way, the playbook is the same as it’s been all year: stay nimble, respect the trend, and don’t be a hero into the catalysts.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

Last week was a lesson in expectations. crushed every line of the print and the stock sold off. Jensen himself called the muted reac…

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Last week was extraordinary. hit fresh record highs above 7,500 for the first time ever, and we're now seven weeks into one of the strongest stretches in market history. ripped 16% after announcing $9 billion in AI infrastructure orders, proof that this AI boom has legs beyond the usual suspects.

All roads lead to Wednesday. reports after the close, and with the stock at all time highs and carrying the entire semiconductor complex on its back, this is the most important earnings report of the quarter. The market's in full FOMO mode, can Jensen deliver another blowout to justify these valuations?

Let's get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

closed Friday at a record 7,500, up 2.8% for the week. These are numbers you see in the strongest bull market phases.

Cisco's earnings Wednesday was the catalyst. The networking giant reported $9 billion in AI infrastructure orders, crushing estimates and proving that enterprise AI spending is accelerating faster than anyone expected. The 16% surge dragged every infrastructure play higher.

The semiconductor rally was relentless. ained 4.2% for the week, with , , and all hitting new 52-week highs. Even laggards like caught a bid. The AI infrastructure story is resonating across the entire supply chain.

Outside tech, the story was mixed. fell 3% on weak guidance and struggled despite solid results. The divergence between AI beneficiaries and traditional sectors couldn't be starker.

As I covered a couple weeks back, narrow leadership can sustain longer than most expect, but it makes individual stock selection critical. You want to own names actually benefiting from the mega trends, not hoping for broad market beta.

📅 This Week's Economic Calendar

Tuesday: Retail Sales (April) and Housing Starts

Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes from the May 7th meeting

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales

Friday: Flash PMI Manufacturing and Services

The FOMC minutes Wednesday are the main macro event. Markets will parse every word for clues on the Fed's next move, especially with inflation data running sticky. Tuesday's retail sales print could also move tape given the mixed and eads.

🔥 The Main Event: NVIDIA Earnings

All eyes on Wednesday after the close. Consensus is $1.77 EPS, a staggering 118.5% YoY jump. Revenue estimates are around $24.5 billion, up from $11.2 billion in the same quarter last year.

The bar is high. has beaten for seven straight quarters and gapped higher every time. But we're at a point where the company needs to demolish numbers, not just beat, to keep this rally going. The stock is up over 190% YTD and trading at nose-bleed valuations even by growth stock standards.

Here's what I'm watching for:

Bull case: Data center revenue tops $22 billion (vs $20B expected), gaming shows sequential growth, and Jensen raises full-year guidance again. Sympathy plays: , , , and infrastructure names like $CSCO that already showed strength.

Neutral case: Solid beat, no major guidance raise. Stock trades sideways to slightly higher. Probably the most likely outcome given how high expectations are already.

Bear case: Any sign of AI capex slowdown, gaming weakness, or China headwinds. Even a small miss could trigger profit-taking across the entire semi complex. Watch , , and the more speculative AI plays for weakness first.

The ripple effects will be massive either way. is the ultimate market barometer right now, and Wednesday evening's move will set the tone for the rest of May.

📈 Market Update

: We saw a pretty lofty pullback on Friday OPEX, but a lot of selling brought major leaders + the indices to the daily 9EMAs. For uptrend believers, we need this spot to be defended and ideally an aggressive rebound in the coming days. Otherwise, we will visit the 21EMA pretty quickly and go from there.

In terms of a true uptrend, the 9EMA has to be the true defense.

Bitcoin: Price has begun to be frothy with price not really respecting EMAs now. Expect more choppiness and as the true tell to be cautious in the rest of the market.

🎯 Game Plan

Early week: use any Monday or Tuesday weakness to add to high conviction positions ahead of $NVDA. The momentum is too strong to fight.

Post-NVDA: in the bull scenario, the rally extends into month end on more FOMO buying. In the bear scenario, be ready for a swift 5-10% correction, likely a buying opportunity for quality names.

The key is position sizing. Don't be a hero with full positions going into the most important earnings report of the quarter, but don't fight this trend either.

🔍 What I’m Watching

: Strong weekly close on a high volume bar post-ER. With SpaceX IPO right around the corner, aerospace names could be in for a nice run up excitement and sell the news.

: Great continuation contender with ER this week. Green in a red tape Friday shows great RS.

: Massive stage 2 weekly base break out in the works. This beaten down software name after earnings looks like it wants to be an outlier. Look for longer dated bullish exposure.

: Huge consolidation on this transportation name, with RS and weekly hammer curling to the highs. Although a slow mover, this name looks like a huge ripper in the making.

💡 My Take

I'll be the first to admit this market feels frothy. up 8% in one month while most sectors struggle is textbook late stage momentum. Concentration in AI names is extreme, and valuations are stretched.

But here's what I learned from missing earlier AI rallies: these mega trends run longer and higher than anyone expects. $NVDA has proven quarter after quarter that demand for AI infrastructure is real and growing exponentially. As long as is booking $9 billion in AI orders, this story has more chapters to write.

The smart play is to ride this momentum while managing risk carefully. Keep position sizes reasonable, trail stops under key EMAs, and be ready for volatility. Just don't try to time the top of a trend that's still accelerating.

This isn't the week to be conservative. If $NVDA delivers another blockbuster, we could see a melt-up that makes the current gains look modest.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

Markets just printed all-time highs across the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Friday, with the Russell 2000 closing up 2.21% to confirm breadth. April was the strongest month for both the $SPX and $NDX since 2020. Underneath the tape: an active war with Iran, Brent above $110, Q1 core PCE at 4.3%, and Fed funds still pinned at 3.75% with no realistic cut path on the horizon.

This week brings a loaded earnings calendar with $PLTR, $AMD, $DIS, $UBER, $ARM, $SHOP, $APP, and a dozen more, plus a respectable macro slate headlined by JOLTS, ISM Services, and ADP. The signal-to-noise ratio is the highest it has been all year. The discipline this week is selectivity, not size.

Let's get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

The indexes ended April with statement closes. The $SPX finished Friday at 7,230.12, the $NDX at 25,114.44, and the $RUT at 2,812.82, with the VIX sitting at 16.99. Clear divergence forming with tech leading while drags. Apple ripped 3% Friday on a Q2 beat and raised guide, capping a week where mega cap earnings quietly carried the tape higher even as the headlines stayed loud.

Sector mix tells the story. Tech and semis led on AI re-acceleration. Financials caught a bid on yield curve steepness. Energy held on the Iran tail. Defensives lagged. That rotation is the textbook profile of a healthy bull tape, not a top.

The macro picture got more complicated. Q1 GDP came in at 2.0%, an acceleration from 0.5% in Q4, with consumer spending and investment doing the heavy lifting. But core PCE jumped to 4.3% and the gross domestic purchases price index rose 3.6%. Translation: the economy is reaccelerating and inflation is reaccelerating with it. Powell announced he is stepping aside at the end of his term, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over the Fed chair.

Oil stayed volatile. WTI traded between $100 and $106 as the war with Iran drove headline by headline moves, and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut. Energy majors $XOM and $CVX beat on EPS but missed on revenue, with stymied production weighing on the top line.

The most important signal of the week was Friday's small cap participation. When the $RUT joins a move at ATHs, that is the breadth confirmation momentum traders wait for.

📅 This Week's Economic Calendar

The macro slate is heavier than it looks. Three releases matter for tape direction.

• Tuesday, May 5: JOLTS Job Openings (March), ISM Services PMI (April), New Home Sales (March).

• Wednesday, May 6: ADP Employment Report (April).

• Friday, May 8: Unemployment Rate

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

🔥 The AI Earnings Test

The two biggest single-stock prints of the week are Monday after the close and Tuesday after the close. Together they are the AI hardware and software read going into later this month.

$PLTR consensus is $0.28 EPS on $1.54B in revenue, which would be 115% YoY EPS growth and 74% revenue growth. U.S. commercial revenue (the AIP read) grew 137% YoY last quarter, and that single number is what Wall Street is anchored on. The stock is down roughly 22% YTD and trading inside a descending channel from the November highs.

$AMD is the more important read for the tape. AMD has been heavy for months, and the data center number will tell you whether the broader AI hardware spend is as durable as $NVDA's pricing suggests. A clean beat and raise here resets the entire AI infrastructure narrative for the next quarter. A miss takes a bite out of $NVDA before it even reports later this month, and the rotation out of semis would be sharp.

The pattern to respect on both names is the post earnings hold. If $PLTR gaps up Tuesday and holds above 145 into the close, that is your continuation signal. Same for $AMD on Wednesday. The trade is the reaction, not the print.

🔥 Wednesday's Mega Slate

Wednesday is the heaviest day of the week for single stock vol. Before the open, $DIS reports Q2 (streaming profitability and parks are the two lines that matter) and $UBER reports Q1 (take rate and free cash flow are the differentiators). After the close, $ARM, $APP, $FTNT, $MAR, and $DASH all hit.

📈 Market Update

:

We closed Friday with an inverted daily hammer, but this also happened last year. We ended up still grinding higher. S&P clearly diverging here from tech risk on names and small caps.

:

Very strong close with semis still leading the charge. We are likely going to see some rotations in the market while participants digest the move we’ve made.

Sector setup: and continue to lead, with semis specifically extending out of a multi week base. $XLF holds firm on the curve. $XLE is a wildcard, reactive to every Iran headline. $XLU and $XLP sit near the bottom of the relative strength rankings, which is consistent with risk on rotation, not defensive positioning.

The only counter signal is the gap between price action and macro reality. We are above 7,200 on the $SPX while a war is active, oil is above $100, and inflation is reaccelerating. Either price is wrong, or the consensus on macro is too pessimistic. Tape says the second.

Until the daily 21 EMA on $SPX breaks, this is a long side trend environment. Manage size from there.

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Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.

Last week was relatively quiet after the fireworks of the Tesla report and the Strait of Hormuz news. The S&P 500 held its gains, consolidated a bit before closing at new highs. This week is different. We're entering the busiest stretch of earnings season with four of the Magnificent Seven reporting, plus GDP data that will tell us whether Q1 growth held up under elevated energy costs.

Let's get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

The S&P 500 broke above 7,000 and held it on a strong weekly close, per CNBC. Action was choppy mid-week as the market digested earnings, but the bulls held the close.

Tesla's Wednesday report delivered mixed results. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, slightly above the $22.1 billion consensus, but automotive margins compressed to 14.2% from 16.3% a year ago. The real story was the Q&A session where Elon confirmed the next generation compact vehicle remains on track for late 2027 production. The stock finished the week down 6% as investors digested the margin pressure.

On the economic front, retail sales data showed consumers pulled back slightly in March, with headline sales up just 0.2% versus the 0.4% expected. Core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) were flat. That's the first sign that elevated energy costs may be starting to bite, though the data isn't alarming yet.

The Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation hearing began Tuesday and will continue this week. The tone so far has been contentious, with Democrats pressing hard on independence from the White House. Warsh emphasized his commitment to the Fed's dual mandate and pushed back on suggestions he would cut rates on political timelines.

📅 This Week's Economic Calendar

Tuesday, April 28: Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET) and the FOMC meeting begins. This is the Conference Board's measure of how households feel about jobs, income, and the economy overall, and a soft print would add weight to the disinflation case heading into Wednesday's Fed decision.

Wednesday, April 29: FOMC Rate Decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Markets are pricing roughly a 94% probability of no change per CME FedWatch. The statement language and any hint at the path forward will set the tone heading into Thursday's GDP print and the heart of mega cap earnings.

Thursday, April 30: Q1 GDP Advance Estimate + PCE (8:30 AM ET). This is the data print that confirms or contradicts the Fed's growth narrative. Consensus is around 1.8% annualized growth. A weak print combined with a hawkish FOMC the day before would be a real test of the rally.

Friday, May 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET). Manufacturing has been in contraction territory for most of last year. A move back above 50 here would be a meaningful signal that the broader economy is reaccelerating. The April Jobs Report follows next Friday, May 8.

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

This is the most important earnings week of the quarter. Five Magnificent Seven names report, and their guidance will set the tone for the rest of the year.

📈 Market Update

- The market retested the daily 9EMA Thursday and saw an aggressive buy reaction to new highs. This type of PA is representative of a strong uptrend and shows resilience of this trend. This is exactly what we want to see when dips are seen, they should be shallow and bought up quickly.

With all the catalyst this week, we are at a pivot point for whether we consolidate a bit or move onto the next leg up.

Bitcoin - Price is currently holding up really well in this uptrend over the weekend. We’re approaching the 80k resistance spot and price is looking like it wants to break past. If anything, crypto’s price action will be a big tell for where the rest of the market can potentially go this week.

🔍 What I'm Watching

- With crypto curling, is looking like a great candidate to add based on this base developing. The daily EMAs have curled back to an uptrend and volume is beginning to decline. A definitive daily close over the 213 area is confirmation of this move.

- This ETF just printed a highest weekly close ever with Samsung reporting ER this week. Expecting a continuation move on this as memory continues to become integral to the AI infrastructure build out.

- nice daily flag brewing after quite a bit of news about peptides and GLP. A break of 32 is the trigger for the confirmation of this flag break and 35+ can come very quickly.

- With photonics in theme and in high demand, I am very interested in this name going into ER. We already have a position on this and am planning to swing through ER but this is top of the list for a potential post-ER trade.

💡 My Take

This week is about validation. The market rallied hard on geopolitical relief and now needs fundamental confirmation that earnings can support valuations at these levels. The Magnificent Seven make up roughly 30% of the S&P 500's market cap. Their results and guidance will determine whether this rally has legs into the summer.

GDP is the wildcard. A weak print combined with disappointing mega cap earnings would be a one-two punch that likely sends us back toward at least the previous ATH spot. A strong GDP print with solid earnings creates the conditions for a sustained push to new highs.

Position sizing matters this week more than most. The range of outcomes is wide. I'm keeping positions at half size through the major reports and will scale up once the direction becomes clearer.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

"The hard work in trading comes in the preparation. The actual process of trading, however, should be effortless."

— Jack Schwager

Jack captures something most traders never internalize: the actual clicking of buttons should be the easy part. The hard work happens before the market opens.

The takeaway? If your trading feels stressful and chaotic in the moment, the problem isn't the market. It's your preparation. The best traders in the world do the heavy lifting before the bell rings, so that execution becomes almost automatic.

The market doesn't care about your feelings. Your job is to not care about its opinion.

Here's what separates consistently profitable traders from everyone else: they think completely differently about what trading actually is.

Most people think trading is about predicting what stocks will do next. They study charts, read news, analyze earnings, and try to forecast price movements. When they're right, they feel smart. When they're wrong, they feel stupid.

Professional traders think about something else entirely: process execution over long series of trades. 🔁

This mental shift changes everything. It's the difference between gambling and business building. It's why some traders make money year after year while others blow up their accounts every few months.

Let's rewire how you think about this game.

🎯 You're Not a Stock Picker, You're a Risk Manager

Stop thinking of yourself as someone who picks winning stocks. Start thinking of yourself as someone who manages risk across many uncertain outcomes.

When you buy AAPL at $150, you're not making a prediction that it will go to $160. You're making a calculated bet that your edge (your setup, your entry timing, your stop placement) will work out more often than it doesn't over the next 100 trades.

Any single trade is statistically meaningless. It's just one flip of a weighted coin. What matters is whether your process gives you an edge over many flips.

This reframe is liberating. You don't need to be right about individual stocks. You just need to execute a process that works more often than it fails.

🎰 The Probability Mindset

Think like a casino. Casinos don't know if the next hand of blackjack will win or lose. But they know that over thousands of hands, the mathematical edge built into their games will generate profits.

You need that same mindset. Your job is to:

1. Identify setups with positive expectancy (more potential reward than risk)

2. Execute those setups consistently

3. Manage risk so no single trade can hurt you

4. Let the math work over many repetitions

When NVDA gaps down 10% on earnings and stops you out, that's not a failure. That's just probability in action. Your setup was correct, your execution was sound, but this particular coin flip didn't go your way.

The only real failure? Breaking your process because of one bad outcome. 🚫

📊 The 100 Trade Test

Here's how professional traders think: no trading strategy is validated until you've executed it at least 100 times.

One good trade proves nothing. Ten good trades prove nothing. Even 50 trades is barely getting started.

But after 100 trades, the noise starts to clear and you can see if your edge is real. You'll know your win rate, your average winner vs average loser, your maximum drawdown, and whether your process actually makes money.

This long-term view changes how you react to daily P&L swings. When trade #47 loses money, you're not devastated because you know you're only halfway through validating your system. When trade #12 makes you 30%, you don't get overconfident because the sample size is still tiny.

Every trade is just data collection for your larger experiment. 🧪

📝 Track Your Execution, Not Your P&L

Most traders obsess over their account balance. They check it multiple times per day, celebrate when it goes up, stress when it goes down.

That's backwards thinking. Your account balance is just the byproduct of your process execution. Focus on the inputs you can control:

• ✅ Did you wait for your setup criteria to be met?

• ✅ Did you size the position according to your rules?

• ✅ Did you place your stop at the predetermined level?

• ✅ Did you stick to your profit-taking plan?

Grade yourself A through F on execution quality for each trade. After 20 trades, you'll see patterns. Maybe you're great at entries but terrible at letting winners run. Maybe you size positions perfectly but move your stops when trades go against you.

Analyzing the data you’ve collected from your trades is how you iterate and refine your trading system.

Process problems are fixable. Outcome obsession just creates more process problems.

🎢 The Emotional Cycle (And How to Break It)

Every trader goes through predictable emotional phases. Learning to recognize and manage these phases is crucial for long-term success.

Phase 1: Overconfidence (After Winners) 🚀

You nail a few good trades in a row. TSLA works perfectly, AAPL breaks out exactly as expected, NVDA gives you a 40% winner. You start feeling like you've figured out the market.

This is dangerous. Overconfidence leads to bigger position sizes, looser risk management, and taking marginal setups because you feel invincible.

The antidote: Stick to your position sizing rules regardless of recent results. One hot streak doesn't validate increasing risk. The market has a way of humbling overconfident traders very quickly.

Phase 2: Revenge Trading (After Losers) 😤

You take a few losses in a row and start feeling frustrated. The market seems to be personally attacking you. You want to "get back" at it by taking bigger risks or forcing trades that aren't quite there.

This is how accounts get blown up. Revenge trading turns small losses into catastrophic ones.

The antidote: Have a mandatory cooldown rule. After three losses in a row, step away from the screen for an arbitrary amount of time. You set this because you know yourself better than anyone else. Your emotional state is compromised and you can't trust your decision making.

Phase 3: Analysis Paralysis (After Whipsaws) 😶

You get stopped in and out of positions multiple times. Every setup seems to fail right after you enter. You start second guessing everything and become afraid to pull the trigger.

This phase kills more traders than big losses do. You become so afraid of being wrong that you stop taking any trades at all.

The antidote: Reduce your sizing until your confidence returns. Practice your process without large amounts of money on the line until the execution becomes mechanical again.

Phase 4: FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) 👀

You see stocks like NVDA or TSLA making massive moves and you weren't in them. You start chasing momentum, buying at extended levels, taking setups that don't quite fit your criteria.

FOMO turns you into a momentum chaser instead of a systematic trader.

The antidote: Remember that there are always more opportunities. Missing one good trade to stick to your process is better than forcing ten bad trades because you were afraid of missing out. The market will always give you another setup. Always.

📓 The Journaling System

If you do nothing else from this article, start keeping a detailed trading journal. This is non-negotiable for anyone serious about improving.

What to Track

For every trade, record:

• Setup type: VCP, EMA crossback, base breakout, etc.

• Entry trigger: What made you pull the trigger?

• Position size: How many shares/contracts and what % of account?

• Stop level: Where did you plan to cut losses?

• Target levels: Where did you plan to take profits?

• Actual exit: What actually happened and why?

• Execution grade: A-F on how well you followed your plan

• Lesson learned: What would you do differently?

📅 Weekly Reviews

Every weekend, review your week's trades. Look for patterns:

• Which setups worked best?

• Where did you deviate from your plan?

• What was your average winner vs average loser?

• How many times did you move your stops?

• Did you exit winners too early or too late?

The goal isn't perfection, it's improvement. You want to see gradual progress in execution quality and gradual refinement of your setups.

🔍 Monthly Audits

Once a month, step back and look at the bigger picture:

• Is your strategy actually profitable?

• What's your win rate and risk/reward ratio?

• Are you staying within your risk limits?

• How's your emotional control?

• What needs to change going forward?

This is where you make systematic adjustments to your approach. Maybe you notice that your EMA crossback trades work much better than your breakout trades. Maybe you see that you make more money when you hold winners longer.

Let the data guide your evolution as a trader. 📈

🧩 Mental Frameworks That Work

Here are the core mental frameworks that consistently profitable traders use:

Framework 1: "I Am Wrong Until Proven Right"

Assume every trade will lose money until the market proves otherwise. This keeps you humble and focused on risk management.

When you buy AAPL at $150, your default expectation should be that you'll get stopped out at $145. If it rallies to $155, that's a pleasant surprise. If it hits your target of $160, that's a bonus.

This mindset prevents overconfidence and keeps you focused on what can go wrong instead of what might go right.

Framework 2: "The Market Owes Me Nothing"

The market doesn't care about your mortgage payment, your account balance, or your need to be right. It's a complex system driven by millions of participants, each with their own agenda.

Your job is to adapt to what the market gives you, not to demand that it behave the way you want.

Some days will be great for your setups. Some days will be terrible. Some weeks you'll be in sync with the market's rhythm. Some weeks you'll be completely out of step.

That's normal. That's the game. 🤷

Framework 3: "Process Over Outcome"

You can execute a perfect trade and still lose money. You can break every rule in your playbook and still make money. Neither outcome teaches you anything useful about your long-term edge.

Judge yourself on process execution, not trade outcomes. A losing trade that followed your plan perfectly is a success. A winning trade where you got lucky despite poor execution is a failure.

The market will reward good process over time, but it might punish it in the short term. Trust the process anyway.

Framework 4: "Probabilities, Not Predictions"

You're not trying to predict the future. You're trying to identify situations where the probability of success is higher than the probability of failure.

When you see a VCP setup in TSLA, you're not saying "TSLA will definitely go up." You're saying "Based on historical data, this type of setup has worked 60% of the time with an average risk/reward of 1:3. That's enough edge to justify a trade."

Think in terms of likely ranges, not specific price targets.

⚡ The Compound Effect

Here's the beautiful thing about developing a process mindset: the benefits compound over time.

When you're focused on execution instead of outcomes, you make better decisions under pressure. When you're tracking your performance systematically, you identify and fix problems faster. When you're thinking probabilistically, you don't get derailed by individual losses.

After six months of this approach, your trading will be dramatically more consistent. After a year, you'll wonder how you ever traded any other way.

The traders who survive long term aren't the ones who never have losing trades. They're the ones who turn trading into a systematic business. 💼

Most people will read this article, nod along, and then go right back to hunting for hot stock picks and trying to predict tomorrow's big movers.

Don't be most people.

Start thinking like a process focused trader today. Your future self will thank you. 🙏

Trading psychology isn't just touchy feely nonsense. It's the foundation that everything else is built on. Master your mindset and the technical skills become much easier to develop.

Want more insights into the mental game of trading? Subscribe to The Dividend Journal for weekly content that goes beyond the charts into the psychology of consistent profitability.

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"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary."

— Alexander Elder

Let's get something straight: technical analysis doesn't make you money. Risk management does.

You can have the world's best entry timing, perfect chart reading skills, and an uncanny ability to pick winning stocks. But if you don't manage risk properly, the market will eventually take everything you've earned and more.

We've seen brilliant traders with 70%+ win rates go broke because they didn't respect these four principles. We've also seen average traders with mediocre setups build substantial wealth because they understood risk management better than everyone else.

The difference isn't talent or luck. It's discipline around these four non-negotiable practices.

💰 Practice 1: Never Risk More Than 1-2% Per Trade (5-10% for Options)

This is the foundation of everything else. Your position sizing determines whether you survive long enough to become profitable.

Most new traders think position sizing means deciding how many shares to buy. That's backwards. Position sizing means deciding how much money you're willing to lose, then working backwards to determine share quantity.

For options trading, you need higher risk per trade because of the capital requirements and premium costs. Risk 5-10% per trade on options, especially with smaller accounts where 1-2% wouldn't provide enough buying power for meaningful positions.

The Math of Survival

Here's why risk management is non-negotiable:

For stock trading (1-2% risk):

If you risk 2% per trade and hit three losers in a row, you've lost 5.9% of your account. You need a 6.3% gain to get back to even.

For options trading (5-10% risk):

If you risk 10% per trade and hit three losers in a row, you've blown 27% of your account. You need a 38% gain just to get back to breakeven.

Risk 5% per trade and three consecutive losses cost you 14.3%. You need a 16.7% gain to recover.

The principle remains: smaller losses are recoverable, large losses are career ending. Options require higher risk due to capital constraints, but you must be even more disciplined about cutting losses quickly.

Real Examples

Stock Trade Example:

Let's say you have a $50,000 account and want to buy NVDA at $100 per share. You've identified $92 as your stop loss level, so your risk per share is $8.

Using the 2% rule:

• Maximum account risk: $50,000 × 2% = $1,000

• Risk per share: $8

• Maximum position size: $1,000 ÷ $8 = 125 shares

• Total position value: 125 × $100 = $12,500

Options Trade Example:

Same $50,000 account, but you want to buy NVDA $100 calls at $3.00 per contract. You plan to sell at $1.50 if the trade goes against you, risking $1.50 per contract.

Using the 5% rule for options:

• Maximum account risk: $50,000 × 5% = $2,500

• Risk per contract: $1.50 × 100 = $150

• Maximum position size: $2,500 ÷ $150 = 16 contracts

• Total position value: 16 × $300 = $4,800

Notice that options require higher percentage risk to get meaningful position sizes, especially on smaller accounts where 2% wouldn't buy enough contracts.

The Position Sizing Formula

Use this formula for every single trade:

Position Size = (Account Size × Risk %) ÷ (Entry Price - Stop Price)

This formula automatically scales your position based on how far away your stop is. Tight stops let you buy more shares. Wide stops force you to buy fewer shares. Your dollar risk stays constant.

When to Risk Different Amounts

For Stock Trading:

Use 1% risk for:

• Unfamiliar setups

• Volatile/unpredictable market conditions

• Stocks outside your wheelhouse

• When you're in a losing streak

Use 2% risk for:

• Your highest-conviction setups

• Stable market conditions

• Stocks you know well

• When you're trading with confidence

For Options Trading:

Use 5% risk for:

• Lower conviction plays

• Volatile market conditions

• When you're rebuilding confidence

Use 10% risk for:

• Highest conviction setups only

• Clear technical setups with defined risk

• When you're trading at peak performance

Never exceed these limits, regardless of how good the setup looks. The market has a way of humbling overconfident traders very quickly.

🎯 Practice 2: Always Know Your Stop Before You Enter

If you don't know where you'll admit you're wrong, you're not trading, you're gambling.

Your stop loss isn't just a number you plug into your broker's software. It's your entire risk management philosophy condensed into a single decision.

Where to Place Stops

There are three ways to determine stop levels, and you should use whichever makes the most sense for your specific trade:

Structure based stops: Place stops just below key technical levels. If you're buying AAPL on a breakout from $150, your stop might go at $147 (just below the breakout point). If you're entering on a 21 EMA bounce, your stop goes just below the EMA.

Using the daily 21EMA means you need to let the whole NY session shake out before closing out. The time frame you use will dictate how much wiggle room you give price.

Volatility based stops: Use Average True Range (ATR) to account for normal price fluctuations. For most momentum stocks, a stop at 2x ATR below your entry gives the trade room to breathe without risking too much.

Stop Loss Mistakes to Avoid

Mental stops: "I'll just watch the chart and sell if it hits my stop." No. Use actual stop orders. When you're losing money, emotions take over and you'll find excuses to hold longer.

Moving stops against you: Your stop can only move in your favor, never against you. If you buy NVDA at $100 with a stop at $93, that stop can move up to $95, $97, etc. as the trade works. But it can never move down to $90.

Stops at obvious levels: Don't put your stop exactly where everyone else has theirs. If the obvious support is at $150, put your stop at $149.50. Market makers hunt stops at round numbers and obvious technical levels.

Position Sizing Integration

Your stop loss directly determines your position size using the formula from Practice #1. Wide stops force smaller positions. Tight stops allow larger positions.

This creates a natural balance: when you're more uncertain about a trade (requiring a wider stop), you automatically risk less money. When you're highly confident (allowing a tight stop), you can risk more.

✂️ Practice 3: Cut Losses Quickly, Let Winners Run

This is the single hardest thing in trading. Human psychology is wired to do the exact opposite: we hold losers hoping they'll come back, and we sell winners early to lock in profits before they disappear.

Every struggling trader has the same story: a portfolio full of small gains they took too early and massive losses they held too long. Flip that ratio and you have a profitable trader.

Why We Get This Backwards

It comes down to loss aversion. Psychologists have proven that losing $100 feels roughly twice as painful as gaining $100 feels good. So when a trade goes against you, your brain screams "don't take the loss" because realizing the loss makes it real.

Meanwhile, when a trade is working, your brain screams "take the profit NOW before it disappears" because unrealized gains feel fragile and temporary.

Both instincts are wrong. The correct behavior is the opposite of what feels natural.

Rules for Cutting Losses

The stop loss from Practice #2 handles most of this, but here's the mindset shift that makes it stick:

A small loss is not a failure. It's the cost of doing business.

Think of losses like insurance premiums. You pay a small, known amount to protect yourself from catastrophe. Every stop loss you honor is you paying your insurance premium.

Here's what separates professionals from amateurs:

• Amateur: Holds a losing trade for 3 weeks, finally sells at -25%, then watches it drop another 30%

• Professional: Sells at -7% the same day or next day, moves on, deploys capital into a better setup

The math is brutal: A 7% loss requires an 8% gain to recover. A 25% loss requires a 33% gain. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain. Cut early or the hole gets exponentially harder to climb out of.

Rules for Letting Winners Run

This is where the real money is made. One big winner can pay for 5-10 small losses. But only if you let it run.

Trail your stops, don't set targets. Instead of saying "I'll sell NVDA at $120" (a fixed target), say "I'll sell NVDA when it closes below the 10-day moving average." This lets a $20 move become a $50 move if momentum continues.

Sell in pieces, not all at once:

• Sell 1/3 at your first target (2-3R profit) to lock in gains

• Trail the remaining 2/3 with progressively tighter stops

• Let the final portion ride until the trend breaks

Never sell a winner just because you're "up enough." If the stock is still trending, still above key moving averages, and still making higher lows: stay in the trade. Your job is to ride the trend, not predict where it ends.

The 1:1.5 Risk-Reward Minimum

Before entering any trade, ask: "If my stop is $3 below my entry, is there at least $4.50 of realistic upside?"

If the answer is no, skip the trade. A 1:1.5 risk-to-reward ratio is the absolute bare minimum you should accept on any trade. That means for every dollar you risk, you need at least $1.50 of potential reward.

Here's why 1:1.5 keeps you profitable even with a modest win rate:

• 10 trades at 1:1.5 R/R with 50% win rate

• 5 winners × $4.50 average gain = $22.50

• 5 losers × $3 average loss = $15.00

• Net profit: $7.50 per 10 trades

That's your floor. Higher is always better. If you can find 1:2 or 1:3 setups, take them every single time. The best traders are consistently finding 1:3+ opportunities, and that's what turns a good year into a great one. But 1:1.5 is the line where you walk away if the setup doesn't offer it.

You don't need to be right most of the time. You need your winners to be bigger than your losers.

Real-World Examples

Bad trade management (what most traders do):

• Buy AAPL at $150. It drops to $145. "It'll come back."

• Drops to $140. "I'm not selling at the low."

• Drops to $135. Finally panic sells. Lost $15/share (10%).

• AAPL then rallies back to $155. You missed the move AND took the loss.

Good trade management:

• Buy AAPL at $150. Stop at $143. It drops to $143. Sell. Lost $7/share (4.7%).

• Deploy that capital into NVDA breaking out at $100. It runs to $130.

• Net result: -$7 on AAPL, +$30 on NVDA. The quick cut freed you up for the real winner.

Letting a winner run:

• Buy MSFT at $380 on a base breakout. Stop at $365.

• It runs to $400. Move stop to $390 (breakeven + profit).

• It runs to $420. Move stop to $405 (trailing the 10 EMA).

• It runs to $450. Move stop to $430.

• Finally closes below the 10 EMA at $440. You sell.

• Result: $60 gain on $15 of initial risk = 4R winner.

That single 4R winner pays for four losing trades. This is how you build an account.

The Emotional Hack

When you're tempted to hold a loser or cut a winner, ask yourself one question:

"If I had no position right now, would I enter this trade at this price?"

If the answer is no then you're holding out of hope, not logic. Sell it.

🌊 Practice 4: Respect Market Regimes, Adjust Risk Based on Conditions

Most traders use the same playbook in every market environment. That's like wearing a winter coat in July because it worked in December.

Markets cycle through distinct regimes: trending, choppy, volatile, calm. Each one demands a different approach to risk. The traders who adapt survive. The ones who don't get ground up.

The Three Market Regimes

Trending markets (the easy money):

Stocks are making higher highs and higher lows. Moving averages are stacked in order (9 > 21 > 50 > 200 EMA). Breakouts work. Pullbacks get bought. This is where momentum traders thrive.

Risk approach: Full position sizes. Trail stops aggressively. Press your winners. This is when you make the bulk of your annual returns.

Choppy/range-bound markets (the meat grinder):

Stocks whipsaw back and forth. Breakouts fail. Pullbacks don't bounce. Moving averages flatten and cross each other repeatedly. Nothing works consistently.

Risk approach: Cut position sizes in half. Tighten stops. Take profits faster. Accept that this is a "survive, don't thrive" environment. Many of your best trades will be sitting on your hands.

High-volatility/crisis markets (the danger zone):

VIX spikes above 30. Stocks gap up and down violently. Correlations go to 1, everything moves together. News drives price more than technicals.

Risk approach: Reduce to 25-50% of normal position sizes. Widen stops to account for increased volatility OR reduce position size further with normal stops. Consider going to cash entirely. Capital preservation is the only goal.

How to Identify the Current Regime

You don't need complicated indicators. Look at these three things:

1. The major averages. Are SPY/QQQ above or below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages? Above both = trending. Between them = transitioning. Below both = defensive.

2. Breadth. Are most stocks participating in the move, or just a handful of mega-caps? Check the percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA. Above 60% = healthy trend. Below 40% = deteriorating. Below 20% = crisis.

3. Your own results. This is the most honest indicator. If your well-researched setups keep failing (stops getting hit, breakouts reversing, winners turning into losers) the market is telling you something. Listen to it.

The Risk Dial

Think of your risk as a dial, not a switch. You don't go from "fully invested" to "all cash" overnight. You adjust gradually:

Level 5: Full offense (trending market, everything working)

• Risk 2% per trade (5-10% for options)

• 4-6 positions

• Trail stops loosely (10/21 EMA)

• Let winners run aggressively

Level 3: Neutral (mixed signals, choppy action)

• Risk 1% per trade (3-5% for options)

• 2-3 positions maximum

• Trail stops tighter (use daily closes)

• Take partial profits earlier

Level 1: Full defense (downtrend, high volatility, nothing working)

• Risk 0.5% per trade or skip entirely

• 0-1 positions

• Only the absolute best setups

• Mostly cash, studying charts, preparing watchlists for the next cycle

The Biggest Mistake: Fighting the Regime

Here's what happens when traders refuse to adapt:

Scenario: The market shifts from a strong uptrend to a choppy, range-bound mess. A trader who made 30% during the trend keeps trading with the same aggression.

• Week 1: Two breakout trades fail. Down 4%.

• Week 2: Tries buying pullbacks. They don't bounce. Down another 5%.

• Week 3: Gets frustrated and sizes up to "make it back." Loses 8%.

• Week 4: Gives back half the gains from the entire uptrend.

What they should have done: Recognized the regime change after Week 1, cut position sizes in half, and waited for the market to show its hand. Even if they took a few small losses, they'd have preserved the majority of their trend gains.

Practical Rules for Regime Adaptation

Rule 1: When in doubt, reduce. If you can't clearly identify the market regime, you're probably in a transition. Trade smaller until clarity returns.

Rule 2: Your P&L is the best indicator. If you've had three losing trades in a row using your standard approach, the market is telling you to adjust. Don't wait for five or six losses to get the message.

Rule 3: Cash is a position. Sitting on the sidelines isn't "doing nothing", it's actively preserving capital for better opportunities. The best traders spend significant portions of each year in cash.

Rule 4: Re-engage slowly. When the market starts trending again, don't immediately go back to full size. Scale back in over 1-2 weeks. Take a few small trades to confirm the regime has actually changed before pressing.

Seasonal and Event-Based Adjustments

Beyond general market regimes, reduce risk around:

• Earnings season: Especially the first week when mega-caps report and set the tone

• Fed meetings: FOMC days and the day after are notoriously choppy

• Options expiration: Monthly opex (third Friday) often creates unusual price action

• Holiday weeks: Low volume = erratic moves. Thin markets can gap violently on small orders

• Election years/major geopolitical events: Uncertainty compresses risk appetite

You don't need to stop trading during these periods. Just dial back your risk and expect wider than normal price swings.

The Bottom Line

The market doesn't care about your strategy. It goes through cycles, and your job is to recognize which cycle you're in and adjust accordingly.

Traders who make money in trending markets and give it all back in choppy ones aren't unlucky, they're inflexible. The ones who keep their gains are the ones who know when to press the gas and when to tap the brakes.

🧩 Putting It All Together

These four practices work together as a complete risk management system:

1. Position sizing (1-2% rule) ensures no single trade can seriously hurt you

2. Predetermined stops define exactly where you'll cut losses

3. Cutting losers fast and letting winners run ensures your winners are always bigger than your losers

4. Regime awareness keeps you from fighting the market and giving back hard-earned gains

None of these rules will help you pick better stocks or time entries more precisely. What they will do is ensure you survive your learning curve and stay in the game long enough to develop real edge.

Most traders focus 90% of their energy on finding good setups and 10% on risk management. That's backwards. Great traders spend most of their time thinking about what can go wrong and how to protect against it.

The setups are just details. The risk management is what determines whether you're still trading in five years.

Your Next Steps

Start implementing these practices immediately:

1. Calculate 1% and 2% of your account value. Write these numbers down.

2. Use the position sizing formula for your next 10 trades, no exceptions.

3. Review your last 20 trades: how many losers did you hold too long? How many winners did you cut too early?

4. Honestly assess the current market regime and adjust your risk dial accordingly.

Don't wait until you have a bad month to start thinking about risk management. Do it now while you're thinking clearly.

Want to Go Deeper?

This article covers the fundamentals, but there's much more to learn about building a sustainable trading business. Risk management is just the foundation.

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Subscribe to The Dividend Journal and join traders who understand that risk management isn't optional, it's the difference between surviving and thriving in the markets.

Risk management isn't the exciting part of trading, but it's the most important part. Master these four practices and you'll outlast 95% of traders who focus only on entries and ignore the fundamentals of capital preservation.

Welcome back to another weekly market prep with The Dividend Journal! If this is your first time here, great timing. This newsletter is your one stop shop to stay ahead of the market and step into the week fully prepared.

The market just did something remarkable. After a nearly 10% drawdown from late March, the S&P 500 completed an 11-session V-shaped recovery and closed at a new all-time high above 7,000. The Nasdaq logged 11 consecutive up days, its longest winning streak since 2020. And on Friday, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial vessels, sending oil down 9% in a single session.

This week is about whether the rally can keep going. Tesla headlines a massive earnings slate, the Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation hearing begins Tuesday, and retail sales data will show us how the consumer is holding up under elevated energy costs. There's a lot to unpack.

Let's get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

This was the week the V-shaped recovery completed.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Tuesday, April 15, closing above 7,000 for the first time since late January. By Friday, the index had gained 4.5% on the week, its third consecutive week of big gains and the longest such streak since Halloween.

The Nasdaq was even stronger, surging nearly 7% for the week. Technology and growth stocks led the charge after lagging for most of Q1. The growth value performance gap that had been widening all year nearly closed entirely in just a few weeks. Growth outperformed value by more than 11% off the late March bottom.

The catalyst came on Friday. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that passage through the Strait of Hormuz "is declared completely open" for the remaining ceasefire period. Oil immediately dropped 9.4%, settling at $82.59 per barrel, back to where prices were in the early days of the conflict. The Dow surged as much as 1,100 points before closing up 868 points (1.8%). The S&P added 1.2%.

The week wasn't without turbulence. Monday tested the market when oil briefly surged above $100 after the U.S. Navy began blockading Iranian ports following the breakdown of peace talks. But markets recovered quickly after confirmation that non-Iranian shipping would be unaffected. That was the last real scare of the week.

Bank earnings kicked off Q1 season with strong results. Goldman Sachs posted record equities trading revenue and a 48% surge in investment banking fees. JPMorgan's markets revenue rose 20% to $11.6 billion with record trading activity. The war volatility was a gift to trading desks. Credit quality remained healthy across the board, and the tone from management was cautiously constructive.

ASML reported €8.8 billion in Q1 sales with a 53% gross margin and raised its full year revenue outlook to €36-40 billion (up from €34-39 billion). The AI spending cycle is alive and well. However, shares dipped on concerns about the US MATCH Act potentially restricting China DUV sales.

Netflix beat expectations with $12.25 billion in revenue (up 16% YoY) and EPS of $1.23 versus the $0.79 estimate. But shares still dropped 10% after hours. The issue wasn't the quarter. It was the guidance. Netflix maintained its 12-14% organic revenue growth target and 31.5% operating margin outlook, but the market wanted more after the beat. A classic "sell the news" reaction.

The VIX fell below 20, approaching pre-conflict levels. Credit spreads tightened. Risk premiums are fading across the board. The market is saying the worst of the Iran crisis is behind us.

📅 This Week's Economic Calendar

Tuesday, April 21: March Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET): the big one for the week. This is the first hard data on how consumers behaved during peak energy prices in March.

Headline CPI surged 0.9% that month, driven by a 21% spike in gasoline. Did consumers pull back, or did they keep spending? The answer matters for Q1 GDP estimates and the "soft landing" narrative.

Also: Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair confirmation hearing begins (more below).

Thursday, April 23: Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET). The labor market has been the unsung hero of this cycle. Claims have remained low despite geopolitical chaos, which supports consumer spending. Any uptick here would be noteworthy.

Thursday, April 23: April S&P Global Composite PMI. This is flash PMI data, which means it captures real time business conditions. This PMI will confirm whether manufacturing is bouncing back.

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

🔥 Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing: Tuesday

This is arguably the most important non earnings event of the week. Trump's nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

Warsh is a former Fed Governor who disclosed over $130 million in assets and pledged to divest. The hearing is expected to be contentious. Democrats are pushing back, and the central question is whether Warsh will serve the public or the president. Trump has repeatedly said he would only nominate someone willing to cut rates.

Why this matters for markets: the Fed Chair transition is happening in the middle of a bifurcated inflation picture (energy hot, core cooling) and a war driven economic backdrop. Any signal from Warsh about rate policy, independence from the White House, or how he views the current inflation situation will move interest rate expectations. Treasury yields could be volatile Tuesday.

🔥 : Wednesday After Close

Tesla is the marquee earnings report of the week, and the setup is interesting.

The company delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, up 6.3% YoYbut slightly below the 365,645 consensus estimate. Analysts are expecting revenue of approximately $21.4 billion with GAAP EPS of $0.16 and adjusted EPS of $0.33. That adjusted number represents a 22% jump from Q1 2025's $0.27.

But the numbers aren't really the story. The Q&A session is what matters. Model S and X production has officially ended. Tesla is selling off limited Signature Edition units as a send off, which leaves a premium shaped hole in the lineup. Investors want answers on: what fills that gap, the timeline on next-gen models, margins trajectory with the lower-cost lineup, and progress on autonomy and robotaxi.

The stock rallied 5% on Friday ahead of earnings, suggesting Wall Street is positioning for a positive surprise.

Bull scenario: Revenue beats the $21.4B estimate, margins hold or expand despite the delivery miss, and Elon provides a concrete timeline on new products. $TSLA rips. Growth names like $RIVN and $LCID catch a sympathy bid.

Bear scenario: Margins compress, guidance disappoints, or the Q&A reveals that the next-gen vehicle timeline is further out than expected. Given the pre earnings rally, a miss gets sold hard. The stock is already up big off the March lows.

🔥 Wednesday Earnings Slate: More Than Just Tesla

Wednesday is stacked. Beyond Tesla, the lineup includes:

• : Aviation recovery narrative. Watch defense revenue and 737 MAX delivery commentary.

• : Semiconductor equipment read, right behind ASML's strong report. Expected revenue around $5.7 billion.

• :Enterprise software bellwether. AI monetization and billings growth are the key metrics.

• : Wireless subscriber growth and fiber expansion. The dividend stock crowd will be watching.

• : Semiconductor cycle read. Inventory levels and analog chip demand.

• : I and consulting revenue. The Watson/watsonx narrative continues.

• : How airlines are managing jet fuel costs with oil at $82-85.

• : Railroad volumes as an economic activity barometer.

This is a heavy day. If you're trading around earnings, Wednesday requires your full attention.

📈 Market Update

:

The S&P 500 closed above 7,100 on Friday, notching its third consecutive record close. The Dow finished at 49,447 (up 1.8% Friday), and the $SPY is now sitting comfortably at all-time highs. The V-shaped recovery from late March is complete. The 10% drawdown has been fully erased, and the death cross from March is quickly becoming irrelevant as the 50-day moving average curls back up. The market is up more than 12% off the late-March bottom.

I would not be surprised if we get a small pullback to start the week and let the daily EMAs play some catch up. Previous ATH as a retest spot is definitely on the table and where I would be watching for dip buy opportunities.

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin surged to around $77,000-$78,000 on Friday, its highest level since before the conflict escalation. The oil-BTC inverse correlation continues. As crude falls and risk appetite returns, crypto benefits. The $80K test is in play if geopolitical conditions keep improving.

This is the spot we’ve been eyeing this whole down turn. We’ve finally seen the EMAs flip back into an uptrend and the test is whether price defends above 74k.

The theme: Last week was about the geopolitical relief trade. This week is about whether earnings can sustain the momentum at all time highs. The bar is higher now. Markets are pricing in a lot of good news, and any disappointment, whether from Tesla, retail sales, or the Warsh hearing, gets amplified when you're sitting at records.

🔍 What I’m Watching:

: Massive weekly consolidation with highest weekly close ever on increasing volume. This is a memory name that does not look like it’s done. The setup here looks exactly like and before their continuation runs.

March cons are in play to target 500+

: Strong energy name with a weekly curl on large volume. While mega caps have been getting a lot of attention, this name has silently been drifting upwards. This climb on higher volume gives room for a potential 135+ test quick.

: Very nice weekly flag + previous ATH retest. Notice how on the daily hammer we swept the lows on aggressive buying. With this name being in theme + an early leader in the rally, this is a name that can continue after this retest.

💡 My Take

Three weeks ago this market was in free fall and everyone was talking about a bear market. Now we're at all time highs. That's the lesson: markets discount the future, not the present. By the time the headlines were worst, the bottom was already in.

I think the Strait of Hormuz reopening is the single most important development for this market right now. Not because the war is over. It isn't. But because it takes the tail risk of $120+ oil off the table, at least temporarily. And that matters for everything: consumer spending, inflation expectations, rate cuts, and earnings multiples.

The Warsh hearing is underrated. Markets haven't fully priced in what a Fed Chair transition means in this environment. If Warsh signals dovish intentions or any willingness to cut rates preemptively, that's rocket fuel. If the hearing turns into a political circus, it adds uncertainty to the rate path, which is a headwind.

Tesla is the most important earnings report of the week. Not because of the numbers, but because of what it says about the growth narrative. The market just rotated hard back into growth and tech off the March bottom. If Tesla delivers and the Q&A inspires confidence, the growth trade has legs. If it disappoints, it raises questions about whether the rotation was just short covering.

This is again not another week to be a hero. We're at all time highs with a loaded calendar. If the market holds these levels through earnings, the path of least resistance is higher. If it doesn't, you'll have better entries below.

See you next week. Trade well.

Will

What a week. The market just posted its best performance since November, powered by a ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran that sent stocks ripping and oil plunging. But by the end of the week, the ceasefire was already looking fragile, and a hot headline CPI print reminded everyone that the inflation story isn’t going away.

Now we’re heading into the heart of Q1 earnings season. Every major bank reports this week, ASML gives us a read on the semiconductor cycle, and Netflix closes things out on Thursday. There’s a lot to process.

Let’s get into it.

⚠️ Weekend Update: Talks Collapse, Trump Threatens Hormuz Blockade

Before we get into the week ahead, we need to address what happened today. The US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without a deal. Vance left Pakistan. No agreement, no framework, no next meeting scheduled. These were the highest level negotiations between the two countries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and they went nowhere.

It gets worse. Trump immediately threatened a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, saying the Navy would “immediately” begin interdicting vessels. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard responded that the strait is under their “full control” and any military vessels approaching would get a “forceful response.”

Oil futures are already spiking, with WTI jumping about 7% and Brent rising nearly 6% on the news. The ceasefire expires April 22. The market’s best week since November may be getting a reality check before Monday even opens.

📊 Last Week Recap

This was the week the market finally caught a break.

On Tuesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, and the reaction was immediate. The Dow ripped 1,325 points higher, its best single session gain since April 2025. The $SPY shot above the 200 day MA for the first time since mid March, and oil crashed below $95 as the Strait of Hormuz reopening came back on the table. It was a textbook relief rally, hitting hardest in the areas that had been beaten up the most.

But it didn’t last. By midweek, Iran said the ceasefire had been broken, and the rally stalled. Stocks spent the rest of the week digesting the move.

Then came Friday’s CPI report. Headline inflation surged 0.9% month-over-month, the largest single month jump in nearly four years. On an annual basis, CPI hit 3.3%, the highest in two years. Energy was the culprit: the energy index rose 10.9% in March, led by a 21.2% spike in gasoline. The Iran war is showing up in consumer prices now.

Here’s the thing though. Core CPI came in softer than expected. Just 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, both a tenth below forecast. Strip out the energy shock and inflation is actually trending in the right direction. That’s why markets didn’t fall apart on the number. It’s a bifurcated inflation picture: energy is screaming, but underlying demand-driven inflation is cooling.

For the week: the S&P 500 rose 3.6%, its best week since November. The Nasdaq gained roughly 4%. Even with Friday’s slight fade, this was a strong week.

Bitcoin also got a major boost from the ceasefire, surging past $72,000 on Tuesday. It had traded below $68K during the peak of the crisis. Oil and crypto have become increasingly correlated this year, with oil down meaning risk assets up. If the ceasefire holds and crude keeps falling, analysts see a path toward BTC testing $80K.

📅 This Week’s Economic Calendar

Tuesday, April 14: PPI and Core PPI (8:30 AM ET): this is the big one for the week. After that hot headline CPI, Wall Street wants to know if the energy shock is showing up in wholesale prices too. Deutsche Bank expects both headline and core PPI accelerated in March. More importantly, the PPI components feed directly into the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. So this data is going to shape rate cut expectations heading into May.

Fed Speakers: At least one Fed official is scheduled to speak every single day this week. Notable names include Goolsbee, Barr, Bowman, Williams, and Waller. Expect a lot of commentary around the CPI bifurcation and whether the energy-driven spike changes the rate path.

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

🔥 Big Bank Earnings: The Main Event

This is bank earnings week, and it’s the unofficial start to Q1 2026 earnings season. Every major Wall Street bank reports over a three day stretch, and the commentary from these calls will set the tone for the rest of the quarter.

Here’s the schedule:

• Monday 4/13:

• Tuesday 4/14: , , ,

• Wednesday 4/15: ,

The big narrative heading in is the M&A revival. After years of drought from 2022 through 2024 when high rates and regulatory uncertainty killed dealmaking, investment banking fees are expected to be the star. Goldman Sachs is expected to report $16.9 billion in revenue (up 12% YoY) with EPS of $16.35 (up 16%). JPMorgan is expected to post EPS of $5.44, up 7% YoY.

But the environment is more complicated than the M&A narrative suggests. The Iran war added volatility to fixed income and commodities trading desks (likely a positive for trading revenue), but it also shook consumer confidence and loan demand. Net interest income growth has plateaued. And credit quality in consumer portfolios, especially anything tied to fuel costs, is worth watching closely.

What to watch for:

• Investment banking fees. This is the story. Are pipelines building? Is M&A actually accelerating or just catching up from a backlog?

• Trading revenue. Volatility is usually good for trading desks. The oil and rates moves in March should translate to strong FICC numbers.

• Credit quality. Any uptick in charge offs or provisions for loan losses? Higher energy prices squeeze consumers.

• Forward guidance. What are CEOs saying about the macro? Dimon’s shareholder letter usually gets more attention than the actual earnings.

Bull scenario: Banks deliver strong beats driven by trading and IB fees, guidance stays constructive, and the “earnings are fine” narrative supports the rally. Financials lead.

Bear scenario: Credit cracks show up, CEOs issue cautious forward guidance citing geopolitical uncertainty and consumer stress. The rally stalls and the market realizes earnings growth is narrowing.

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We're entering a critical stretch for markets. Last week's action tested some important technical levels across major indexes, and thi…

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This is going to be a tricky week. We’re coming off four straight weeks of losses in the S&P 500, the longest losing streak since early 2024. Oil settled above $112/barrel, the Fed just told us they’re stuck, and the S&P 500 broke below its 200 day moving average for the first time since last year. But as we talked about a couple weeks ago, these environments eventually create opportunity. The question is timing.

This week brings a lighter earnings slate but some important economic data, headlined by Friday’s PCE inflation print. Let’s get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

Last week was rough. The $SPY closed at 6,506 on Friday, down 1.5% on the day alone, and the S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive weekly decline (source). The index is now down 5.1% year to date. JPMorgan cut their S&P 500 year-end target to 7,200 (source). The most significant technical development: the S&P 500 broke below its 200 day moving average (~6,615) on Wednesday for the first time since last year. That’s a level that gets a lot of institutional attention, and closing the week at 6,506 means we’re now well below it.

The big story remains the Iran war and what it’s doing to oil. Brent crude settled at $112.19/barrel on Friday, up 3.3% on the day (source). The Strait of Hormuz is essentially shut, and a fifth of the world’s oil flows through that waterway. Iraq declared force majeure on foreign operated oilfields, and the Pentagon is deploying additional Marines to the region (source). Goldman Sachs says oil could stay in triple digits for years if the strait doesn’t reopen, though their base case has Brent easing to the $70s by Q4 if flows gradually resume from April (source).

On Wednesday, the FOMC held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% as expected (source). But here’s the thing: the dot plot now shows a median of one cut expected this year and another in 2027. Of the 19 FOMC participants, seven signaled no cuts at all for 2026, seven projected one cut, and the rest were split between 50-100bp of cuts. Powell called it a “difficult situation” and acknowledged that the war’s implications are “uncertain.” That word keeps coming up.

The PPI report also came in hot: wholesale prices surged 0.7% month over month in February, the largest gain in seven months (source). Producer goods prices specifically jumped 1.1%, the biggest increase since August 2023. Economists are now estimating core PCE rose 0.4% in February, which we’ll get confirmation on this Friday.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.38%, up from 3.97% pre war. That’s a massive move, and it’s crushing rate cut expectations.

On the earnings front, $LULU reported last week and the results were mixed. Q4 beat expectations, but the 2026 guidance was the story: the company expects annual revenue of $11.35B to $11.50B (below the $11.52B consensus) and EPS of $12.10 to $12.30, well below the $13.26 earned last year and the $12.58 analysts expected (source). The stock got destroyed, down over 50%. That’s your premium consumer bellwether telling you demand is cracking.

In other news, Super Micro Computer’s co-founder was charged with conspiring to smuggle billions in AI chips to China, which dragged the Nasdaq lower on Friday (source).

Sector wise, energy was the only green on the week, while tech, consumer discretionary, and software all got hit hard. Market internals are deteriorating: only 18% of S&P 500 stocks closed above their 50-day moving average on Friday, the lowest since April 2024.

📅 This Week’s Economic Calendar

Tuesday, March 24: Services PMI

Thursday, March 26: Unemployment Claims

Friday, March 27: UoM Consumer Sentiment

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This is a big one. We have an FOMC meeting with a fresh dot plot, a Powell press conference (his second to last as Chair), and earnings from Micron, the most important AI hardware name not named NVIDIA. All of this is happening against the backdrop of a market that just logged new 2026 lows and a geopolitical crisis that has oil prices calling the shots.

Last week was again another rough one. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the Nasdaq slipped under its 200-day, and oil surged over 5% as Iran doubled down on closing the Strait of Hormuz. The market is being held hostage by energy prices right now, and this week will test whether the Fed can offer any relief.

Let’s get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

Another rough week for equities. The major indexes finished lower across the board:

• $SPY / S&P 500: -1.6% (closed ~$662, new 2026 low)

• $QQQ / Nasdaq: -1.3% (fell below the 200-day moving average)

• Dow: -2.0%

• Russell 2000: -1.8%

Here’s the thing. None of this was driven by traditional fundamentals. CPI came in exactly in line at 2.4% headline and 2.5% core. PCE matched forecasts too, though it stayed stubbornly high at 2.8%. Q4 GDP was revised lower to just 0.7%. In any normal market, that in line inflation data would have been a relief. But this is not a normal market.

Oil is running the show. The Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade sent crude up about 5.5% for the week, with Brent hovering around $80-82 per barrel. The IRGC literally said they won’t allow “a litre of oil” through the strait. That kind of headline moves markets fast.

Treasury yields climbed hard on the inflationary implications: the 2-year jumped 17 basis points to 3.73%, and the 10-year rose 16 bps to 4.29%. Higher yields plus higher oil equals pain for most of the market.’

In the software sector: -4.0%+In earnings, Oracle crushed it: cloud revenue up 44%, both organic revenue and non-GAAP EPS growing 20%+ for the first time in 15 years. $ORCL jumped 10%. But Adobe sank 8% despite record earnings after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he’s stepping down, adding uncertainty around the company’s AI strategy.

The market is telling us something: good earnings can’t save you when macro headwinds are this strong.

📅 This Week’s Economic Calendar

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Last week’s price action was not positive, and this week could be even worse.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is now entering its second week with no ceasefire in sight. Oil ripped 35% in five days. The jobs report was a disaster. And just when you thought the market might catch a bid, President Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social and crude hit $92.

This week, we get CPI on Wednesday and PCE on Friday. Two inflation prints in one week, with oil screaming higher. The market is looking for a reason to bounce. The question is whether the data gives it one, or whether inflation fears make everything worse.

Let's get into it.

📊 Last Week Recap

It was a week the market would like to forget.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,740, down 2% on the week. The Dow dropped 3%, its worst week since last April. The Nasdaq fell 1.2%. All three major indexes are now in negative territory for 2026.

The February jobs report came in significantly worse than expected. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs when economists expected a gain of 50,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. This is the kind of print that gets people talking about recession, and the timing could not be worse with oil prices compounding the pain.

Speaking of oil, WTI crude futures surged as high as $92.61 on Friday, their highest level since September 2023. The 35% weekly gain was the largest since crude futures started trading in 1983. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tanker traffic halted after Iran targeted regional energy infrastructure. Maersk suspended multiple shipping services linking the region to Europe and Asia. Kuwait cut oil production. Goldman Sachs warned oil could breach $100 within days.

The 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.15%, up from 3.95% the prior week. Gold hit $5,165 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.97. Bitcoin, which plunged to $63,000 after the initial Iran strikes, recovered to around $68,100.

The one bright spot: surged 18% after strong earnings driven by AI demand. popped nearly 4% on reports of a 500-aircraft order from China, expected to be unveiled when President Trump visits Beijing March 31-April 2. On the other side, dropped 14% post-earnings.

All seven Magnificent Seven names closed lower on Friday. Defensive positioning dominated the week, with massive put buying creating what one strategist called "a rubber band ready to snap if we get some light at the end of the tunnel."

📅 This Week's Economic Calendar

Tuesday, March 10
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (February)

Wednesday, March 11
8:30 AM ET: CPI (February): the big one. Last month, headline CPI rose modestly while core inflation remained firm, with shelter costs still the primary driver. Markets are laser focused on whether the oil spike is bleeding into consumer prices yet. A hot print here could send yields higher and kill any bounce attempt.
10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, obviously critical context given the Hormuz crisis.

Thursday, March 12
Housing Starts (January), Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 13
8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (January): the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Oxford Economics says the delayed January BEA report is unlikely to shift Fed policy, but with oil ripping, any upside surprise would be amplified.
GDP Second Estimate (Q4 2025), Personal Income & Spending (January), Durable Goods Orders (January, preliminary), JOLTS Job Openings (January), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March, preliminary)

This is a monster data week. CPI Wednesday and PCE Friday bookend the week with the two most important inflation reads. Add in the JOLTS print and another jobs claims number, and we'll have a very clear picture of where the economy stands by Friday close.

Earnings this week, courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

🔥 Oracle ($ORCL): Tuesday After Close

This is the earnings event of the week. reports Q3 FY2026 results Tuesday after the bell.

The setup: Oracle has been one of the more interesting AI infrastructure plays. The stock is down about 20% year-to-date as investors question the heavy capex spend on cloud and AI buildout. But the numbers keep growing! Consensus expects:

• EPS: $1.70-$1.71 (15.6% YoY growth)

• Revenue: ~$16.9 billion (16-18% growth in constant currency, 19-21% in dollar terms)

• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Estimated at $541 billion, up 315% from a year ago

That RPO number is staggering. Oracle's cloud and AI infrastructure buildout, including its role in the Stargate AI project, has created a massive contracted backlog. The question is whether the market cares about future revenue when present-day macro is this uncertain.

Bull scenario: Revenue beats the high end of guidance (21%+ in dollar terms), cloud infrastructure revenue accelerates, and management raises full-year outlook. RPO comes in above $541B. The stock bounces hard off oversold levels, and sympathy flows into $CRM, $NOW, $SNOW, and the broader cloud/AI trade.

Neutral scenario: Numbers come in roughly inline. Revenue at 18-19% growth, EPS at $1.70. RPO is strong but the market shrugs because geopolitics dominate sentiment. Stock moves 2-3% either way.

Bear scenario: Revenue disappoints on the low end of guidance or below. Enterprise spending shows signs of pulling back due to macro uncertainty. Management flags deal slippage or client caution tied to the war. Stock gaps down, and the entire cloud/AI complex takes a hit. $AMZN (AWS), $MSFT (Azure), and $GOOGL (GCP) all feel it.

What to watch: The conference call commentary on enterprise AI demand. Are customers still signing big cloud contracts, or is the geopolitical uncertainty causing hesitation? That's the real signal.

💰 Other Earnings to Watch

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📈 Market Update'

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